{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af0374cb-d4ab-4c58-8889-b28f9167e8a1", "symbol": "ASMI", "name": "ASM International NV", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.982, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.123, "architecture_energy": 23.97, "architecture_maturity": 66.488, "architecture_confidence": 85.362, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.59, "rotation_up": 16.95, "upward_expansion": 51.78, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 40.38, "downward_expansion": 20.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 855.346671, 894.256366, 892.739273, 853.853013 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 857.400024, "trend_reference": 802.362205, "distance_from_trend": 0.068595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 601.480964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.195638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.277279, "excess_performance": 0.103032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061956, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.277279, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.194231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11, "relative_activity": 0.171607, "balance": 0.194231, "dry_up": 1.645866, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092372, "annualized_volatility": 0.43739, "from_high_reference": -0.200559, "from_low_reference": 1.146746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 802.362205, "fair_value_reference": 601.480964, "structural_low": 620.063655, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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947.924412, 886.9627, 834.643708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 860.200012, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 137.1, "trend": 773.098734, "fair_value": 592.593379, "relative_strength": 13.461962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.173069, "energy": 33.559511, "activity_lines": [ 922.780005, 935.590913, 890.299239, 841.022951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 866.799988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 82.65, "trend": 784.942973, "fair_value": 595.81934, "relative_strength": 11.990606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.217952, "energy": 25.840213, "activity_lines": [ 894.533333, 924.536365, 893.492773, 847.068193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 826.799988, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 64.6, "trend": 794.092342, "fair_value": 598.505161, "relative_strength": 6.184724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.389223, "energy": 23.819027, "activity_lines": [ 865.599996, 905.947271, 891.972258, 849.768646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 857.400024, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 64.1, "trend": 802.362205, "fair_value": 601.480964, "relative_strength": 6.195638, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.122593, "energy": 23.969741, "activity_lines": [ 855.346671, 894.256366, 892.739273, 853.853013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }