{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af09d847-7d48-4527-b239-5888160108bc", "symbol": "COYA", "name": "Coya Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.213, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.719, "architecture_energy": 16.422, "architecture_maturity": 46.549, "architecture_confidence": 65.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.08, "rotation_up": 18.31, "upward_expansion": 24.59, "deceleration": 72.36, "rotation_down": 55.56, "downward_expansion": 32.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.526667, 4.783818, 4.753238, 4.684581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 4.63, "distance_from_trend": 0.038877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.062085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.745042, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006198, "excess_performance": -0.193652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181972, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006198, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.865811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 753960, "relative_activity": 0.833917, "balance": 0.865811, "dry_up": 1.208617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15159, "annualized_volatility": 0.592399, "from_high_reference": -0.379355, "from_low_reference": 0.296461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.63, "fair_value_reference": 6.062085, "structural_low": 3.7101, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170886, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.286765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.284983, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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"relative_strength": -26.585783, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.512104, "energy": 10.093273, "activity_lines": [ 4.827333, 4.922364, 4.773905, 4.704667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.19, "volume": 760009, "typical_volume": 907988.45, "trend": 4.631333, "fair_value": 6.052918, "relative_strength": -27.199439, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.641541, "energy": 18.837939, "activity_lines": [ 4.53, 4.791091, 4.733238, 4.673054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 753960, "typical_volume": 904118.85, "trend": 4.63, "fair_value": 6.062085, "relative_strength": -19.745042, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.718884, "energy": 16.42151, "activity_lines": [ 4.526667, 4.783818, 4.753238, 4.684581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }