{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af0bdcee-7d5c-47a9-8ac4-03d8ffcb7d90", "symbol": "ATFV", "name": "THE ALGER ETF TRUST ALGER 35 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.517, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.541, "architecture_energy": 20.587, "architecture_maturity": 54.986, "architecture_confidence": 85.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.02, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 56.08, "deceleration": 87.9, "rotation_down": 31.79, "downward_expansion": 19.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.497113, 38.819169, 38.684255, 37.58924 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.6598, "trend_reference": 36.32314, "distance_from_trend": 0.09186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.243303, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.511235, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.328549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.184292, "excess_performance": 0.058667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041164, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.511235, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003285, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184292, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.532969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 283168, "relative_activity": 1.129909, "balance": 1.532969, "dry_up": 1.016601, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069994, "annualized_volatility": 0.257112, "from_high_reference": -0.055719, "from_low_reference": 0.333995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.32314, "fair_value_reference": 26.243303, "structural_low": 29.7301, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030158, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016856, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.100636, "worst_return": -0.057898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082068, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04353, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.178996, "worst_return": 0.030757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.194364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32397, "worst_return": 0.187161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.465572, 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"start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.164118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002465, "active": false 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35.500756, "fair_value": 25.209109, "relative_strength": 9.256104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.28576, "energy": 60.950135, "activity_lines": [ 40.094833, 39.372478, 37.22654, 36.315164 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 39.0266, "volume": 378474, "typical_volume": 189555.05, "trend": 35.632067, "fair_value": 25.359069, "relative_strength": 4.754882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.524687, "energy": 47.875815, "activity_lines": [ 39.818287, 39.440189, 37.543407, 36.542637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.5, "volume": 927956, "typical_volume": 230793.05, "trend": 35.768513, "fair_value": 25.514088, "relative_strength": 3.535689, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.532883, "energy": 43.109705, "activity_lines": [ 39.710673, 39.549489, 37.878985, 36.792181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.9977, "volume": 113080, "typical_volume": 229297.55, "trend": 35.954813, "fair_value": 25.666773, "relative_strength": 3.187234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.114082, "energy": 43.297728, "activity_lines": [ 39.815887, 39.698042, 38.233488, 37.065032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.39, "volume": 166222, "typical_volume": 234051.1, "trend": 36.036147, "fair_value": 25.803909, "relative_strength": -2.094381, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.805823, "energy": 24.20437, "activity_lines": [ 39.006933, 39.319964, 38.31122, 37.157625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.98, "volume": 346721, "typical_volume": 246098.15, "trend": 36.082147, "fair_value": 25.938336, "relative_strength": -2.667445, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.095359, "energy": 18.652492, "activity_lines": [ 38.165313, 38.879522, 38.330571, 37.218519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.36, "volume": 222976, "typical_volume": 240003.05, "trend": 36.19148, "fair_value": 26.08512, "relative_strength": -0.200697, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.561163, "energy": 18.173493, "activity_lines": [ 38.09236, 38.723604, 38.45978, 37.365477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.6598, "volume": 283168, "typical_volume": 250611.3, "trend": 36.32314, "fair_value": 26.243303, "relative_strength": -0.328549, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.540541, "energy": 20.586554, "activity_lines": [ 38.497113, 38.819169, 38.684255, 37.58924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }