{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af0fa32c-94bc-4584-a203-60cdd3302776", "symbol": "BKMC", "name": "BNY MELLON ETF TR BNY MELLON US MID CAP CORE EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.436, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.814, "architecture_energy": 46.45, "architecture_maturity": 51.743, "architecture_confidence": 59.504, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.8, "rotation_up": 45.85, "upward_expansion": 74.65, "deceleration": 68.33, "rotation_down": 25.71, "downward_expansion": 5.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.679836, 40.566151, 40.104701, 39.533933 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.6315, "trend_reference": 38.977099, "distance_from_trend": 0.068102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.105545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.322343, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068303, "excess_performance": -0.057322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037771, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023349, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010083, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.245879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78784, "relative_activity": 0.350098, "balance": 2.245879, "dry_up": 0.425389, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025076, "annualized_volatility": 0.137784, "from_high_reference": -0.000924, "from_low_reference": 0.234451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.977099, "fair_value_reference": 33.105545, "structural_low": 35.270999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.007341, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.010621, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.07295, "worst_return": -0.093509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.022132, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.012667, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.092435, "worst_return": -0.078979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04536, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.029526, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.13093, "worst_return": -0.110517, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 40.0925, "volume": 63636, "typical_volume": 214432.95, "trend": 38.731843, "fair_value": 32.927708, "relative_strength": -0.58831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.052583, "energy": 39.622413, "activity_lines": [ 40.320866, 40.311412, 39.750291, 39.25839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.2271, "volume": 215579, "typical_volume": 222950.3, "trend": 38.855832, "fair_value": 33.011541, "relative_strength": -1.301477, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.71228, "energy": 30.10694, "activity_lines": [ 40.251842, 40.318517, 39.869617, 39.354858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.6315, "volume": 78784, "typical_volume": 225034.25, "trend": 38.977099, "fair_value": 33.105545, "relative_strength": -1.322343, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.813578, "energy": 46.450293, "activity_lines": [ 40.679836, 40.566151, 40.104701, 39.533933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }