{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "af1231ed-7ae5-4201-b6d0-913f988da9ae",
    "symbol": "XDNG",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF 2D GBP Hedged",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 58.715,
    "architecture_energy": 35.684,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.833,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.253,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.3,
        "rotation_up": 41.53,
        "upward_expansion": 68.94,
        "deceleration": 82.65,
        "rotation_down": 27.2,
        "downward_expansion": 16.61
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4085.666667,
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        4030.878571,
        3947.213608
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 4171.5,
    "trend_reference": 3848.398437,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.083957,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2881.232455,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.447818,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 7.498262,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.111574,
    "excess_performance": 0.060339,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083957,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.064799,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.447818,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022192,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.074983,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.044635,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.111574,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.760471,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2614,
      "relative_activity": 0.586013,
      "balance": 2.760471,
      "dry_up": 0.803638,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031873,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.206974,
      "from_high_reference": -0.010705,
      "from_low_reference": 0.403595
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3848.398437,
      "fair_value_reference": 2881.232455,
      "structural_low": 3429.346924,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.027002,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013735,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.069681,
        "worst_return": -0.028701,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.043636,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.036554,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.170304,
        "worst_return": -0.094385,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.101089,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.088697,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.234637,
        "worst_return": -0.049839,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.027266,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019352,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.338307,
        "worst_return": -0.056888,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.003976,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.006208,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00358,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019326,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
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        "return": 0.067404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      {
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "trend": 3787.57863,
        "fair_value": 2843.501157,
        "relative_strength": 6.943836,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 56.197172,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4093.0,
        "volume": 1647,
        "typical_volume": 5147.1,
        "trend": 3810.635083,
        "fair_value": 2855.980026,
        "relative_strength": 7.729897,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.823814,
        "energy": 50.323876,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3996.5,
        "volume": 6334,
        "typical_volume": 5280.4,
        "trend": 3829.50826,
        "fair_value": 2868.10301,
        "relative_strength": 3.602205,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.443678,
        "energy": 33.608669,
        "activity_lines": [
          4055.866667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4171.5,
        "volume": 2614,
        "typical_volume": 4460.65,
        "trend": 3848.398437,
        "fair_value": 2881.232455,
        "relative_strength": 7.498262,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 35.683971,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}