{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af14c1b8-06ad-4caf-a43a-579dc828b56d", "symbol": "XDBG", "name": "Xtrackers Bloomberg Commodity ex-Agriculture & Livestock Swap UCITS ETF 3C GBP Hedged", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.093, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.78, "architecture_energy": 15.25, "architecture_maturity": 61.08, "architecture_confidence": 64.13, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.38, "rotation_up": 37.25, "upward_expansion": 25.7, "deceleration": 52.99, "rotation_down": 23.58, "downward_expansion": 30.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 4899.133333, 4861.790909, 4952.888095, 4964.423656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4943.5, "trend_reference": 4933.033333, "distance_from_trend": 0.002122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3783.379551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.220791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066789, "excess_performance": 0.015554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012208, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.162498, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3559, "relative_activity": 1.533853, "balance": 1.162498, "dry_up": 0.635909, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024081, "annualized_volatility": 0.135485, "from_high_reference": -0.087703, "from_low_reference": 0.396587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4933.033333, "fair_value_reference": 3783.379551, "structural_low": 4506.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003183, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003912, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.051478, "worst_return": -0.024224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017391, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013762, "worst_return": -0.080625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089907, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097681, "worst_return": 0.001813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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-37.536497, "energy": 75.662312, "activity_lines": [ 4762.133333, 4903.763636, 4996.3, 4960.191398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4825.5, "volume": 524, "typical_volume": 2727.95, "trend": 4874.0, "fair_value": 3752.014166, "relative_strength": 2.287329, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.149389, "energy": 71.644895, "activity_lines": [ 4766.266667, 4869.854545, 4977.971429, 4958.439785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4943.0, "volume": 163, "typical_volume": 2574.05, "trend": 4894.05, "fair_value": 3762.533397, "relative_strength": 3.240143, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.013005, "energy": 46.984343, "activity_lines": [ 4822.633333, 4864.463636, 4970.742857, 4962.891398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4889.5, "volume": 1656, "typical_volume": 2498.65, "trend": 4915.2, "fair_value": 3772.757756, "relative_strength": 0.657456, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.839175, "energy": 24.090199, "activity_lines": [ 4858.166667, 4855.090909, 4958.683333, 4962.597849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4943.5, "volume": 3559, "typical_volume": 2320.3, "trend": 4933.033333, "fair_value": 3783.379551, "relative_strength": 1.220791, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.780231, "energy": 15.249855, "activity_lines": [ 4899.133333, 4861.790909, 4952.888095, 4964.423656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }