{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af186ed2-bc86-4696-a48b-dd1cb625a83d", "symbol": "003009", "name": "Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.219, "architecture_energy": 63.508, "architecture_maturity": 16.216, "architecture_confidence": 88.973, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.58, "rotation_up": 12.46, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 34.81, "rotation_down": 68.57, "downward_expansion": 87.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.957332, 54.351818, 56.156381, 57.806538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.669998, "trend_reference": 61.62, "distance_from_trend": -0.177702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.560582, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065378, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.67946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257038, "excess_performance": -0.264438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.155627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21655340, "relative_activity": 0.942885, "balance": 0.155627, "dry_up": 1.458199, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148548, "annualized_volatility": 0.513101, "from_high_reference": -0.496322, "from_low_reference": 0.143018 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.62, "fair_value_reference": 47.560582, "structural_low": 44.330002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007567, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.005189, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.337986, "worst_return": -0.263436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.12191, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.089413, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.330421, "worst_return": -0.104436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05135, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.052639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.345806, "worst_return": -0.017394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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58.758909, 58.774667, 60.54114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.59, "volume": 34270505, "typical_volume": 23074665.95, "trend": 63.375, "fair_value": 47.591023, "relative_strength": -14.111032, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.750325, "energy": 30.904537, "activity_lines": [ 56.4, 57.368182, 57.950619, 59.690667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.049999, "volume": 24627128, "typical_volume": 22804541.35, "trend": 62.549, "fair_value": 47.559365, "relative_strength": -20.420668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.808247, "energy": 60.908915, "activity_lines": [ 52.534, 55.340727, 56.795619, 58.572925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.669998, "volume": 21655340, "typical_volume": 22967095.75, "trend": 61.62, "fair_value": 47.560582, "relative_strength": -16.67946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.218835, "energy": 63.507886, "activity_lines": [ 50.957332, 54.351818, 56.156381, 57.806538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }