{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af1f3167-4e5b-4860-9a9a-7d06e897db42", "symbol": "CRT", "name": "Cross Timbers Royalty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.595, "architecture_energy": 26.768, "architecture_maturity": 34.709, "architecture_confidence": 56.098, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.44, "rotation_up": 58.02, "upward_expansion": 62.48, "deceleration": 65.32, "rotation_down": 10.03, "downward_expansion": 14.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.006696, 9.745199, 9.951455, 9.930257 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.04, "trend_reference": 9.706814, "distance_from_trend": 0.034325, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.595607, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052438, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.731498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.203149, "excess_performance": 0.077524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034325, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007315, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.203149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.641688, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101555, "relative_activity": 0.732392, "balance": 1.641688, "dry_up": 0.605139, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071578, "annualized_volatility": 0.338646, "from_high_reference": -0.086994, "from_low_reference": 0.488574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.706814, "fair_value_reference": 10.595607, "structural_low": 8.22664, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.007933, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.014985, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.15917, "worst_return": -0.121572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015705, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -1.9e-05, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.242461, "worst_return": -0.10836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146604, "worst_return": -0.201142, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.390975, "energy": 45.538483, "activity_lines": [ 9.128173, 9.620907, 9.961848, 9.796308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.801119, "volume": 92729, "typical_volume": 159334.05, "trend": 9.473459, "fair_value": 10.722027, "relative_strength": 2.141735, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.167484, "energy": 45.790903, "activity_lines": [ 9.283702, 9.593207, 9.942049, 9.821857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.089388, "volume": 67492, "typical_volume": 151753.2, "trend": 9.555298, "fair_value": 10.680166, "relative_strength": 5.867887, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.455298, "energy": 14.212158, "activity_lines": [ 9.597746, 9.629706, 9.945538, 9.861595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.22, "volume": 73863, "typical_volume": 141438.0, "trend": 9.640436, "fair_value": 10.639404, "relative_strength": 6.09408, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.801926, "energy": 20.841615, "activity_lines": [ 9.87514, 9.700648, 9.958238, 9.904479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.04, "volume": 101555, "typical_volume": 138662.05, "trend": 9.706814, "fair_value": 10.595607, "relative_strength": 0.731498, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.595476, "energy": 26.767783, "activity_lines": [ 10.006696, 9.745199, 9.951455, 9.930257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }