{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af20efec-9826-4227-a0ee-2a9745f10f59", "symbol": "600178", "name": "Harbin Dongan Auto Engine Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.899, "architecture_energy": 31.593, "architecture_maturity": 69.909, "architecture_confidence": 80.99, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.3, "rotation_up": 24.22, "upward_expansion": 3.65, "deceleration": 57.74, "rotation_down": 39.53, "downward_expansion": 72.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.353247, 9.402308, 9.628833, 10.079275 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.49, "trend_reference": 10.786294, "distance_from_trend": -0.12018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.057904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.686377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.229082, "excess_performance": -0.185878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14179, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051933, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229082, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722616, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33569560, "relative_activity": 1.102242, "balance": 0.722616, "dry_up": 1.557373, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114357, "annualized_volatility": 0.443628, "from_high_reference": -0.406875, "from_low_reference": 0.164417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.786294, "fair_value_reference": 11.057904, "structural_low": 8.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.019174, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.000738, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.315018, "worst_return": -0.183857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024374, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.036853, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.590368, "worst_return": -0.236676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.162866, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.058756, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.80656, "worst_return": -0.215715, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.63, "volume": 91156385, "typical_volume": 29629800.45, "trend": 10.896294, "fair_value": 11.039469, "relative_strength": -15.962528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.210745, "energy": 38.143161, "activity_lines": [ 9.289647, 9.379013, 9.684685, 10.170004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.49, "volume": 33569560, "typical_volume": 30455699.85, "trend": 10.786294, "fair_value": 11.057904, "relative_strength": -18.686377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.898508, "energy": 31.592567, "activity_lines": [ 9.353247, 9.402308, 9.628833, 10.079275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }