{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af282f00-2f5f-4937-96c7-bfca14cc7d25", "symbol": "TCIFINANCE", "name": "TCI Finance Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.963, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.526, "architecture_energy": 22.748, "architecture_maturity": 21.935, "architecture_confidence": 62.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.38, "rotation_up": 14.96, "upward_expansion": 14.47, "deceleration": 68.15, "rotation_down": 62.65, "downward_expansion": 44.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.248, 16.593273, 16.403381, 16.008882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.16, "trend_reference": 16.285667, "distance_from_trend": -0.06912, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.874551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.424846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011089, "excess_performance": 0.03262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566762, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84450, "relative_activity": 0.721337, "balance": 0.566762, "dry_up": 0.78655, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195707, "annualized_volatility": 0.999159, "from_high_reference": -0.605824, "from_low_reference": 0.516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.285667, "fair_value_reference": 11.874551, "structural_low": 12.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030579, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.023965, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214953, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.150987, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.178621, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.7, "worst_return": -0.121651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.466148, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.408305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.551724, "worst_return": 0.010788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013278, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.08004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.037931, "worst_return": -0.183333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12963, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035606, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135749, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.700508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.559483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070007, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.385919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034395, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.05, "volume": 6209, "typical_volume": 6912.5, "trend": 2.961667, "fair_value": 4.904487, "relative_strength": -17.997927, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.309999, "volume": 249956, "typical_volume": 134373.35, "trend": 17.797667, "fair_value": 11.561026, "relative_strength": 7.318408, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.451848, "energy": 21.234735, "activity_lines": [ 18.616, 18.069454, 16.553428, 16.58671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.7, "volume": 102550, "typical_volume": 126826.35, "trend": 17.73, "fair_value": 11.643077, "relative_strength": 2.615389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.635161, "energy": 11.726287, "activity_lines": [ 17.072667, 17.826, 16.564048, 16.451376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.19, "volume": 91969, "typical_volume": 126581.0, "trend": 17.448333, "fair_value": 11.721218, "relative_strength": 1.424621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.601645, "energy": 21.106527, "activity_lines": [ 16.083333, 17.464, 16.525857, 16.287505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.91, "volume": 89370, "typical_volume": 121796.35, "trend": 16.940333, "fair_value": 11.797564, "relative_strength": -3.10641, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.334418, "energy": 24.973164, "activity_lines": [ 15.503333, 17.021273, 16.455952, 16.123742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.16, "volume": 84450, "typical_volume": 117074.2, "trend": 16.285667, "fair_value": 11.874551, "relative_strength": -2.424846, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.526343, "energy": 22.747695, "activity_lines": [ 15.248, 16.593273, 16.403381, 16.008882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }