{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af288a0f-a04e-41e4-b897-a30ce5555535", "symbol": "BGDV", "name": "BAHL & GAYNOR DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.242, "architecture_energy": 70.362, "architecture_maturity": 31.97, "architecture_confidence": 85.486, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.82, "rotation_up": 64.7, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 54.69, "rotation_down": 25.56, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.26128, 31.07386, 30.651404, 30.131873 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.6666, "trend_reference": 29.519283, "distance_from_trend": 0.072743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.69468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186251, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.243611, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103489, "excess_performance": -0.022136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043907, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036507, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0076, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.960328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115262, "relative_activity": 1.936651, "balance": 5.960328, "dry_up": 1.369103, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015441, "annualized_volatility": 0.112692, "from_high_reference": -0.005758, "from_low_reference": 0.247277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.519283, "fair_value_reference": 26.69468, "structural_low": 26.751496, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.003888, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000732, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.003888, "worst_return": -0.003888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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78.445263, "energy": 86.896182, "activity_lines": [ 30.890732, 30.653021, 30.066533, 29.62312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.920746, "volume": 16411, "typical_volume": 54798.85, "trend": 29.158467, "fair_value": 26.531079, "relative_strength": 1.469061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.418871, "energy": 79.22515, "activity_lines": [ 30.925229, 30.737872, 30.203951, 29.744959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.049946, "volume": 93255, "typical_volume": 57012.85, "trend": 29.275108, "fair_value": 26.584242, "relative_strength": 2.43753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.087117, "energy": 76.481928, "activity_lines": [ 30.973269, 30.82726, 30.345423, 29.86699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.11, "volume": 101007, "typical_volume": 58218.65, "trend": 29.395803, "fair_value": 26.636867, "relative_strength": 1.475579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.933237, "energy": 74.840081, "activity_lines": [ 31.04076, 30.908254, 30.47967, 29.98537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.6666, "volume": 115262, "typical_volume": 59516.15, "trend": 29.519283, "fair_value": 26.69468, "relative_strength": -0.243611, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.241692, "energy": 70.362021, "activity_lines": [ 31.26128, 31.07386, 30.651404, 30.131873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }