{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af2ea568-8a8d-4da1-b5ce-f5649e761522", "symbol": "601600", "name": "Aluminum Corporation of China Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.406, "architecture_energy": 33.717, "architecture_maturity": 81.163, "architecture_confidence": 80.704, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.41, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 36.14, "downward_expansion": 67.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.405333, 9.181818, 9.879095, 10.542581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.85, "trend_reference": 11.453333, "distance_from_trend": -0.139988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.940684, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.864452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.302902, "excess_performance": -0.259698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240447, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18117, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.976422, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1080703289, "relative_activity": 0.941811, "balance": 2.976422, "dry_up": 1.31412, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104334, "annualized_volatility": 0.496962, "from_high_reference": -0.378549, "from_low_reference": 0.389764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.453333, "fair_value_reference": 7.940684, "structural_low": 7.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.032812, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.024502, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.211048, "worst_return": -0.100213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031161, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.049942, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.328014, "worst_return": -0.184932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.136387, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.134103, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.366845, "worst_return": -0.200343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -14.706816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.501286, "energy": 87.968037, "activity_lines": [ 8.451333, 9.190545, 10.219762, 10.925505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.44, "volume": 2012644638, "typical_volume": 1215536347.25, "trend": 11.608, "fair_value": 7.88704, "relative_strength": -6.190021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.21833, "energy": 71.174307, "activity_lines": [ 8.738, 9.127273, 10.067524, 10.782602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.57, "volume": 1164836321, "typical_volume": 1182739198.9, "trend": 11.532333, "fair_value": 7.912874, "relative_strength": -5.633403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.400882, "energy": 50.561353, "activity_lines": [ 9.064, 9.114727, 9.949238, 10.651118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.85, "volume": 1080703289, "typical_volume": 1147473307.2, "trend": 11.453333, "fair_value": 7.940684, "relative_strength": -5.864452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.406214, "energy": 33.716583, "activity_lines": [ 9.405333, 9.181818, 9.879095, 10.542581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }