{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af326a8a-d2bf-4e15-99a0-f41ae16a74e3", "symbol": "ACA", "name": "Arcosa Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.024, "architecture_energy": 81.031, "architecture_maturity": 53.48, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 59.99, "upward_expansion": 95.52, "deceleration": 43.31, "rotation_down": 26.92, "downward_expansion": 19.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 144.997998, 143.475822, 136.313057, 130.393356 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 144.84, "trend_reference": 124.298648, "distance_from_trend": 0.165258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.917281, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.52596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.620556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.161657, "excess_performance": 0.036032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.165258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.52596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076369, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.136206, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161657, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.085739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3147278, "relative_activity": 1.195461, "balance": 3.085739, "dry_up": 1.462795, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037709, "annualized_volatility": 0.332097, "from_high_reference": -0.013817, "from_low_reference": 0.629178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.298648, "fair_value_reference": 94.917281, "structural_low": 99.813644, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.005024, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.009381, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.183117, "worst_return": -0.122254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.039623, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.001457, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.179819, "worst_return": -0.200829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010585, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.030697, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.18257, "worst_return": -0.105738, "sufficient": true }, { 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119.607739, "fair_value": 93.157308, "relative_strength": 19.188865, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.38681, "energy": 89.181972, "activity_lines": [ 142.58878, 136.302623, 128.371701, 124.288476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 145.01, "volume": 5597164, "typical_volume": 2468754.8, "trend": 120.737338, "fair_value": 93.605121, "relative_strength": 20.38576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.192051, "energy": 88.135442, "activity_lines": [ 144.286879, 138.601741, 130.622779, 125.927331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 145.0, "volume": 3366906, "typical_volume": 2512706.45, "trend": 121.897909, "fair_value": 94.054653, "relative_strength": 20.347972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.864007, "energy": 86.163353, "activity_lines": [ 144.945332, 140.625041, 132.693961, 127.492664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 145.2, "volume": 3292992, "typical_volume": 2566692.55, "trend": 123.181377, "fair_value": 94.488586, "relative_strength": 18.390209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.104192, "energy": 84.284435, "activity_lines": [ 145.05666, 142.305432, 134.61486, 128.996025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.84, "volume": 3147278, "typical_volume": 2632688.9, "trend": 124.298648, "fair_value": 94.917281, "relative_strength": 13.620556, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.023594, "energy": 81.031154, "activity_lines": [ 144.997998, 143.475822, 136.313057, 130.393356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }