{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af32bf24-bd97-4da6-9d21-b84f9426fa42", "symbol": "TNE", "name": "Technology One Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.272, "architecture_energy": 34.528, "architecture_maturity": 32.675, "architecture_confidence": 74.591, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.05, "rotation_up": 48.39, "upward_expansion": 76.68, "deceleration": 62.53, "rotation_down": 25.34, "downward_expansion": 5.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.549333, 30.297455, 29.955296, 29.195461 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.75, "trend_reference": 28.039042, "distance_from_trend": 0.168014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.680065, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275308, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.481278, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.502153, "excess_performance": 0.438448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132809, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014813, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.502153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.066621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3108906, "relative_activity": 0.748898, "balance": 3.066621, "dry_up": 0.957192, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067474, "annualized_volatility": 0.471584, "from_high_reference": -0.186365, "from_low_reference": 0.630441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.039042, "fair_value_reference": 25.680065, "structural_low": 20.086595, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.001928, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.005538, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.376471, "worst_return": -0.236754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.035193, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047703, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.288202, "worst_return": -0.310383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.164477, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.137028, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.537432, "worst_return": -0.366836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.391018, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.310904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.479014, "worst_return": -0.176184, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.676593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036522, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091398, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166465, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 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27.762118, "fair_value": 25.294391, "relative_strength": -2.176851, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.93427, "energy": 29.358762, "activity_lines": [ 30.251333, 30.266013, 29.521726, 28.6093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.66, "volume": 3455247, "typical_volume": 4688756.55, "trend": 27.808291, "fair_value": 25.389406, "relative_strength": -5.057058, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.751282, "energy": 24.552345, "activity_lines": [ 30.043333, 30.218515, 29.609014, 28.731744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.110001, "volume": 3782223, "typical_volume": 4534686.75, "trend": 27.762482, "fair_value": 25.464291, "relative_strength": -12.326064, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.88943, "energy": 10.852719, "activity_lines": [ 29.094667, 29.675669, 29.436021, 28.686693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.76, "volume": 5548022, "typical_volume": 4473739.6, "trend": 27.861611, "fair_value": 25.564869, "relative_strength": -2.172136, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.859841, "energy": 19.617976, "activity_lines": [ 29.553333, 29.817818, 29.611349, 28.880081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.75, "volume": 3108906, "typical_volume": 4151308.95, "trend": 28.039042, "fair_value": 25.680065, "relative_strength": 1.481278, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.272259, "energy": 34.527889, "activity_lines": [ 30.549333, 30.297455, 29.955296, 29.195461 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }