{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af339306-eb74-4474-b6d1-782ce7f56cc3", "symbol": "XWDS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.155, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.049, "architecture_energy": 22.757, "architecture_maturity": 25.263, "architecture_confidence": 63.606, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.13, "rotation_up": 42.93, "upward_expansion": 59.9, "deceleration": 75.66, "rotation_down": 24.27, "downward_expansion": 18.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.7295, 50.609455, 50.66131, 50.300957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.529999, "trend_reference": 50.122584, "distance_from_trend": 0.048031, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.585691, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.192953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066491, "excess_performance": 0.015255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048031, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024989, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066491, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.690207, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2669, "relative_activity": 1.295694, "balance": 0.690207, "dry_up": 1.174329, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028315, "annualized_volatility": 0.187902, "from_high_reference": -0.239745, "from_low_reference": 0.151595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.122584, "fair_value_reference": 46.585691, "structural_low": 45.615002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005252, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.010861, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.12078, "worst_return": -0.042524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070704, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.040383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202028, "worst_return": -0.127038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039242, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029725, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.128971, "worst_return": -0.07221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095308, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252026, "worst_return": -0.263621, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132744, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059155, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007461, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029394, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 37.904999, "volume": 453, "typical_volume": 22.65, "trend": 46.635933, "fair_value": 48.827719, "relative_strength": -11.863713, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural 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"close": 50.43, "volume": 5584, "typical_volume": 2767.6, "trend": 50.329167, "fair_value": 46.599339, "relative_strength": -7.09275, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.702187, "energy": 6.561278, "activity_lines": [ 50.705333, 50.774637, 50.526512, 50.268936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.0625, "volume": 788, "typical_volume": 2709.35, "trend": 50.183084, "fair_value": 46.576367, "relative_strength": -12.281943, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.356348, "energy": 24.768886, "activity_lines": [ 49.813167, 50.256091, 50.348905, 50.122699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.575001, "volume": 635, "typical_volume": 1940.45, "trend": 50.158917, "fair_value": 46.57268, "relative_strength": -8.620289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.450849, "energy": 13.566214, "activity_lines": [ 49.956334, 50.246682, 50.418024, 50.147984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.529999, "volume": 2669, "typical_volume": 2059.9, "trend": 50.122584, "fair_value": 46.585691, "relative_strength": -5.192953, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.048867, "energy": 22.757061, "activity_lines": [ 50.7295, 50.609455, 50.66131, 50.300957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }