{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af378af0-3e21-48ba-b0b0-cb4e97a65b08", "symbol": "000902", "name": "YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.98, "architecture_energy": 29.583, "architecture_maturity": 84.765, "architecture_confidence": 75.062, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.82, "rotation_up": 34.78, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 22.4, "downward_expansion": 57.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.408667, 12.973273, 13.271845, 13.969629 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 14.840354, "distance_from_trend": -0.097057, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.682024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.509669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.222693, "excess_performance": -0.230092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097057, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055596, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029882, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61534323, "relative_activity": 1.077447, "balance": 0.574773, "dry_up": 1.292249, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068629, "annualized_volatility": 0.366826, "from_high_reference": -0.300623, "from_low_reference": 0.157168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.840354, "fair_value_reference": 12.682024, "structural_low": 11.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006467, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.019465, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.122079, "worst_return": -0.124674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004678, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059842, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111086, "worst_return": -0.197128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015788, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00638, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.124893, "worst_return": -0.274151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000724, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"down", "direction": -48.831526, "energy": 42.955797, "activity_lines": [ 12.774667, 12.598871, 13.33685, 14.128809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 54679548, "typical_volume": 59647570.4, "trend": 14.906589, "fair_value": 12.663853, "relative_strength": -4.242815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.460978, "energy": 26.63876, "activity_lines": [ 13.256, 12.840545, 13.32312, 14.066828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 61534323, "typical_volume": 57111204.2, "trend": 14.840354, "fair_value": 12.682024, "relative_strength": -12.509669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.979645, "energy": 29.583377, "activity_lines": [ 13.408667, 12.973273, 13.271845, 13.969629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }