{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af38fc4d-389c-4707-a40b-48a0fba611f4", "symbol": "MXFS", "name": "Invesco MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.676, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.288, "architecture_energy": 25.021, "architecture_maturity": 65.339, "architecture_confidence": 77.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.06, "rotation_up": 18.19, "upward_expansion": 52.59, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.03, "downward_expansion": 18.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.482001, 72.65982, 72.416715, 70.685785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 72.150002, "trend_reference": 68.438333, "distance_from_trend": 0.054234, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.680288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.211506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131587, "excess_performance": -0.039304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054234, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077707, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08134, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3032, "relative_activity": 1.024238, "balance": 0.501102, "dry_up": 1.262562, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041569, "annualized_volatility": 0.224385, "from_high_reference": -0.074169, "from_low_reference": 0.368551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.438333, "fair_value_reference": 52.680288, "structural_low": 59.73, "invalidation": "A 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022437, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038701, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.800795, "energy": 37.429503, "activity_lines": [ 73.468669, 73.904547, 71.980429, 69.97428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.389999, "volume": 997, "typical_volume": 2855.15, "trend": 67.741, "fair_value": 52.314679, "relative_strength": 0.490397, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.557157, "energy": 23.801893, "activity_lines": [ 72.434001, 73.486001, 72.166905, 70.238796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.610001, "volume": 7544, "typical_volume": 3000.8, "trend": 68.090667, "fair_value": 52.489231, "relative_strength": -1.356508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.436775, "energy": 24.674908, "activity_lines": [ 71.554001, 72.919456, 72.237334, 70.423892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.150002, "volume": 3032, "typical_volume": 2960.25, "trend": 68.438333, "fair_value": 52.680288, "relative_strength": -2.211506, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.288172, "energy": 25.021327, "activity_lines": [ 71.482001, 72.65982, 72.416715, 70.685785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }