{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af463a81-1e74-4696-92ed-d7143e89b6f8", "symbol": "GPPL", "name": "Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.925, "architecture_energy": 43.567, "architecture_maturity": 37.435, "architecture_confidence": 87.062, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.75, "rotation_up": 15.99, "upward_expansion": 7.09, "deceleration": 43.66, "rotation_down": 54.35, "downward_expansion": 78.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.969336, 152.00582, 153.116335, 154.608539 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 151.630005, "trend_reference": 158.433667, "distance_from_trend": -0.042943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 160.035418, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.372019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131856, "excess_performance": -0.088147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079432, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.2795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4312311, "relative_activity": 0.87878, "balance": 1.2795, "dry_up": 1.007888, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037089, "annualized_volatility": 0.223164, "from_high_reference": -0.242191, "from_low_reference": 0.071212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.433667, "fair_value_reference": 160.035418, "structural_low": 141.550003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.00136, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.021992, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.197913, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.060278, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015744, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.264169, "worst_return": -0.239061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05204, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005035, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.29591, "worst_return": -0.228313, "sufficient": false }, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.11358, "energy": 32.995961, "activity_lines": [ 153.204668, 153.700911, 153.988763, 156.585743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.229996, "volume": 4291510, "typical_volume": 4936276.7, "trend": 160.643667, "fair_value": 159.458964, "relative_strength": -3.692937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.929352, "energy": 40.643901, "activity_lines": [ 151.808, 152.881274, 153.526286, 155.77671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.490005, "volume": 5184248, "typical_volume": 4944711.3, "trend": 159.583001, "fair_value": 159.73971, "relative_strength": -5.34343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.305453, "energy": 42.99204, "activity_lines": [ 151.088001, 152.32382, 153.26362, 155.121635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.630005, "volume": 4312311, "typical_volume": 4907158.35, "trend": 158.433667, "fair_value": 160.035418, "relative_strength": -5.372019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.925456, "energy": 43.566736, "activity_lines": [ 150.969336, 152.00582, 153.116335, 154.608539 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }