{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af487896-d4c7-4a80-a619-1dfa27e41676", "symbol": "TSN", "name": "Tyson Foods Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.155, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.16, "architecture_energy": 28.121, "architecture_maturity": 23.005, "architecture_confidence": 69.999, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.56, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 9.74, "deceleration": 62.11, "rotation_down": 43.24, "downward_expansion": 68.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.850667, 57.847818, 59.452361, 60.336028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 58.04, "trend_reference": 61.214732, "distance_from_trend": -0.051862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.874241, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.196498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096027, "excess_performance": -0.221652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011482, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18465719, "relative_activity": 1.233964, "balance": 0.494028, "dry_up": 1.070667, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062511, "annualized_volatility": 0.252333, "from_high_reference": -0.157594, "from_low_reference": 0.177004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.214732, "fair_value_reference": 54.874241, "structural_low": 54.53, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.01842, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": -0.015269, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.119564, "worst_return": -0.196481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019943, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.058351, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.191832, "worst_return": -0.235764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027926, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.082105, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.163276, "worst_return": -0.203964, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-24", "close": 57.45, "volume": 11311285, "typical_volume": 14840584.25, "trend": 61.154548, "fair_value": 54.776626, "relative_strength": -8.379118, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.760824, "energy": 36.533775, "activity_lines": [ 57.876667, 57.98766, 60.025556, 60.744911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.96, "volume": 20548725, "typical_volume": 14961973.0, "trend": 61.183143, "fair_value": 54.821649, "relative_strength": -8.464278, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.137106, "energy": 32.966326, "activity_lines": [ 57.830667, 57.851002, 59.730741, 60.538812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.04, "volume": 18465719, "typical_volume": 14964554.85, "trend": 61.214732, "fair_value": 54.874241, "relative_strength": -11.196498, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.15956, "energy": 28.12139, "activity_lines": [ 57.850667, 57.847818, 59.452361, 60.336028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }