{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af492e25-6df8-4249-94f7-99bfacd8723e", "symbol": "UD02", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI EMU Low Volatility UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.052, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.131, "architecture_energy": 72.917, "architecture_maturity": 22.877, "architecture_confidence": 68.38, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 76.16, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 56.7, "rotation_down": 16.06, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1687.220033, 1678.707293, 1657.660006, 1644.159784 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1702.8, "trend_reference": 1623.68333, "distance_from_trend": 0.048727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1427.134615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.546255, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072022, "excess_performance": 0.020787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031427, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050303, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072022, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.237736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.605694, "balance": 3.237736, "dry_up": 0.852514, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010395, "annualized_volatility": 0.137483, "from_high_reference": -0.030545, "from_low_reference": 0.160974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1623.68333, "fair_value_reference": 1427.134615, "structural_low": 1537.300049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.000431, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.005808, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.072339, "worst_return": -0.060934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006782, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.016276, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.071784, "worst_return": -0.073393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024795, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.030496, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.066697, "worst_return": -0.108221, "sufficient": true }, 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1678.800047, 1670.776385, 1651.152862, 1638.687096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1702.8, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 165.1, "trend": 1623.68333, "fair_value": 1427.134615, "relative_strength": -0.546255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.131152, "energy": 72.91691, "activity_lines": [ 1687.220033, 1678.707293, 1657.660006, 1644.159784 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }