{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af494fbc-82ce-4913-9750-e159dde1eaea", "symbol": "ICEI", "name": "Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.996, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.574, "architecture_energy": 26.923, "architecture_maturity": 75.209, "architecture_confidence": 38.068, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.18, "rotation_up": 47.61, "upward_expansion": 24.14, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 13.11, "downward_expansion": 53.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.620003, 123.93437, 124.929034, 127.61518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 131.300003, "trend_reference": 131.643321, "distance_from_trend": -0.002608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 132.876653, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.174453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077602, "excess_performance": -0.251849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002608, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010949, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077602, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 51.789474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 51.789474, "dry_up": 2.751972, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043493, "annualized_volatility": 0.281761, "from_high_reference": -0.176025, "from_low_reference": 0.195266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.643321, "fair_value_reference": 132.876653, "structural_low": 109.849998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029805, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.022078, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.147237, "worst_return": -0.059816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015163, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033647, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129661, "worst_return": -0.069836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014432, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012563, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.02798, "worst_return": -0.061669, "sufficient": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01891, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026994, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051639, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.985816, "energy": 87.606543, "activity_lines": [ 115.622683, 120.229139, 126.313919, 129.704372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 117.75, "volume": 356, "typical_volume": 25.65, "trend": 132.90318, "fair_value": 132.177215, "relative_strength": -30.587288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.522866, "energy": 85.432253, "activity_lines": [ 115.862001, 119.063869, 125.110038, 128.682636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 122.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25.65, "trend": 132.418281, "fair_value": 132.315489, "relative_strength": -25.718755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.531135, "energy": 61.204837, "activity_lines": [ 117.833335, 119.031722, 124.397789, 127.99856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 126.349998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25.65, "trend": 132.065726, "fair_value": 132.477254, "relative_strength": -23.520345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.302778, "energy": 36.171022, "activity_lines": [ 121.070001, 119.910182, 124.147832, 127.607058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.850006, "volume": 628, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 131.958397, "fair_value": 132.679453, "relative_strength": -18.711645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.122408, "energy": 22.860156, "activity_lines": [ 125.856669, 122.079214, 124.598314, 127.657657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.05, "trend": 131.643321, "fair_value": 132.876653, "relative_strength": -21.174453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.573732, "energy": 26.922914, "activity_lines": [ 128.620003, 123.93437, 124.929034, 127.61518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }