{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "af4bd02c-cf5d-4cb2-8974-4961cc2382b3",
    "symbol": "MCON",
    "name": "Mackenzie Conservative Allocation ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 67.539,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 61.998,
    "architecture_energy": 39.659,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.001,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.395,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.17,
        "rotation_up": 40.4,
        "upward_expansion": 67.55,
        "deceleration": 85.34,
        "rotation_down": 27.45,
        "downward_expansion": 17.55
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        24.948,
        24.966719,
        24.827182,
        24.645207
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 25.15,
    "trend_reference": 24.445177,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.028833,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 21.315646,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179884,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.461609,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.044065,
    "excess_performance": -0.076356,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028833,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020827,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.179884,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004271,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.064616,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005753,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044065,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.660698,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1601,
      "relative_activity": 0.35438,
      "balance": 0.660698,
      "dry_up": 1.216535,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.00989,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.068303,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002844,
      "from_low_reference": 0.140885
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.445177,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.315646,
      "structural_low": 23.4,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.014744,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001737,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.03664,
        "worst_return": -0.031418,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.023702,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012045,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.068803,
        "worst_return": 0.010714,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.073033,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02554,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.07967,
        "worst_return": 0.026534,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.099103,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013368,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.105817,
        "worst_return": 0.092389,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-10-20",
        "end": "2023-11-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036335,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009557,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.040077,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022783,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.09219,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003095,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040281,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002223,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-26",
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        "return": 0.003837,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "relative_strength": -7.068087,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "activity_lines": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 10601.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -5.290968,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "direction": 70.790398,
        "energy": 80.273032,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 25.139999,
        "volume": 2500,
        "typical_volume": 4700.55,
        "trend": 24.221948,
        "fair_value": 21.086645,
        "relative_strength": -4.776447,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 25.07,
        "volume": 4920,
        "typical_volume": 4544.85,
        "trend": 24.279667,
        "fair_value": 21.134233,
        "relative_strength": -4.943211,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.975216,
        "energy": 81.87521,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 24.84,
        "volume": 11904,
        "typical_volume": 4883.75,
        "trend": 24.329719,
        "fair_value": 21.178778,
        "relative_strength": -5.460881,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.848618,
        "energy": 57.567161,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.001494,
          24.949907,
          24.70338,
          24.537892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 24.799999,
        "volume": 3004,
        "typical_volume": 4536.05,
        "trend": 24.375453,
        "fair_value": 21.222833,
        "relative_strength": -5.648896,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.39578,
        "energy": 44.723742,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.924,
          24.937721,
          24.73662,
          24.568233
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 24.83,
        "volume": 5475,
        "typical_volume": 4555.65,
        "trend": 24.411454,
        "fair_value": 21.268301,
        "relative_strength": -4.878141,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.507506,
        "energy": 34.140008,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.876666,
          24.925171,
          24.769377,
          24.597559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 25.15,
        "volume": 1601,
        "typical_volume": 4517.75,
        "trend": 24.445177,
        "fair_value": 21.315646,
        "relative_strength": -6.461609,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.998385,
        "energy": 39.658841,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.948,
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          24.827182,
          24.645207
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}