{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af4d10d9-79aa-4ed6-b7da-abc8793eb6a0", "symbol": "NSGE", "name": "NBI Sustainable Global Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.647, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.492, "architecture_energy": 36.037, "architecture_maturity": 61.528, "architecture_confidence": 76.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.52, "rotation_up": 36.15, "upward_expansion": 63.95, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 22.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.168667, 44.302546, 43.866524, 43.084882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.740002, "trend_reference": 42.343333, "distance_from_trend": 0.056601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.163355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.010047, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074964, "excess_performance": -0.045457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056601, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00832, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013425, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074964, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.546568, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5800, "relative_activity": 1.409272, "balance": 4.546568, "dry_up": 0.906368, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018672, "annualized_volatility": 0.156288, "from_high_reference": -0.013233, "from_low_reference": 0.167232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.343333, "fair_value_reference": 40.163355, "structural_low": 38.330002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.003735, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.007974, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.080753, "worst_return": -0.088598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005917, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011799, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.065017, "worst_return": -0.122982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024597, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057674, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.13277, "worst_return": -0.115331, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034937, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -5.529468, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.421508, "energy": 85.952047, "activity_lines": [ 44.836, 44.375273, 43.26219, 42.625257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.57, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 4535.45, "trend": 42.190254, "fair_value": 39.989098, "relative_strength": -7.743606, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.114326, "energy": 63.679585, "activity_lines": [ 44.482, 44.290546, 43.397286, 42.717887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.900002, "volume": 5121, "typical_volume": 4010.15, "trend": 42.244333, "fair_value": 40.043774, "relative_strength": -6.914881, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.134753, "energy": 47.144595, "activity_lines": [ 44.236001, 44.264546, 43.553095, 42.828193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.779999, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 3857.1, "trend": 42.297, "fair_value": 40.101087, "relative_strength": -6.397822, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.080514, "energy": 33.702463, "activity_lines": [ 44.019333, 44.198909, 43.675571, 42.927269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.740002, "volume": 5800, "typical_volume": 4115.6, "trend": 42.343333, "fair_value": 40.163355, "relative_strength": -7.010047, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.491639, "energy": 36.037447, "activity_lines": [ 44.168667, 44.302546, 43.866524, 43.084882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }