{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af5ae8b9-74d3-49b6-af0f-7a99806b39b1", "symbol": "IBLC", "name": "ISHARES TRUST BLOCKCHAIN AND TECH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 78.332, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.713, "architecture_energy": 28.311, "architecture_maturity": 32.302, "architecture_confidence": 65.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.63, "rotation_up": 15.0, "upward_expansion": 16.65, "deceleration": 59.28, "rotation_down": 63.7, "downward_expansion": 46.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.647427, 45.250527, 47.04891, 45.9344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.6936, "trend_reference": 44.665317, "distance_from_trend": -0.021756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.725983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295547, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.469444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13667, "excess_performance": 0.011045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010077, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295547, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38388, "relative_activity": 0.505155, "balance": 0.747857, "dry_up": 0.644234, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120271, "annualized_volatility": 0.486704, "from_high_reference": -0.326465, "from_low_reference": 0.289658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.665317, "fair_value_reference": 33.725983, "structural_low": 33.88, "invalidation": "A 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55.745872, "energy": 35.409729, "activity_lines": [ 51.282613, 51.259685, 47.940076, 46.174963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 45.3248, "volume": 88335, "typical_volume": 94290.3, "trend": 44.732572, "fair_value": 32.980746, "relative_strength": -9.624061, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.77143, "energy": 21.484089, "activity_lines": [ 49.141573, 50.310616, 47.976958, 46.210003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.137, "volume": 61789, "typical_volume": 93271.2, "trend": 44.755187, "fair_value": 33.134979, "relative_strength": -9.177067, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.943116, "energy": 18.88245, "activity_lines": [ 47.949573, 49.529316, 48.060073, 46.300611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.9282, "volume": 67377, "typical_volume": 92694.35, "trend": 44.692293, "fair_value": 33.266883, "relative_strength": -15.893472, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.578803, "energy": 18.328835, "activity_lines": [ 45.512107, 47.973642, 47.70374, 46.118225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.27, "volume": 25341, "typical_volume": 83985.95, "trend": 44.752627, "fair_value": 33.413194, "relative_strength": -10.530026, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.471761, "energy": 24.801651, "activity_lines": [ 44.506027, 47.02654, 47.555873, 46.09098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.36, "volume": 64722, "typical_volume": 81153.75, "trend": 44.72796, "fair_value": 33.565574, "relative_strength": -13.270081, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.413572, "energy": 25.879185, "activity_lines": [ 43.81756, 46.029138, 47.293482, 46.001133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.6936, "volume": 38388, "typical_volume": 75992.55, "trend": 44.665317, "fair_value": 33.725983, "relative_strength": -15.469444, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.713346, "energy": 28.310816, "activity_lines": [ 43.647427, 45.250527, 47.04891, 45.9344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }