{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af5e3bc4-d811-4249-9176-b4ef356c7f2f", "symbol": "XSTC", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Information Technology UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.485, "architecture_energy": 42.567, "architecture_maturity": 69.546, "architecture_confidence": 94.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.28, "rotation_up": 39.21, "upward_expansion": 65.81, "deceleration": 94.2, "rotation_down": 29.08, "downward_expansion": 15.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 12368.666667, 12353.545455, 12207.702381, 11747.134486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12912.0, "trend_reference": 11176.038997, "distance_from_trend": 0.155329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8791.246213, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.468734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.352979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.305451, "excess_performance": 0.254215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155329, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.468734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10353, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.305451, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.998468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37094, "relative_activity": 1.394829, "balance": 1.998468, "dry_up": 1.295078, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042709, "annualized_volatility": 0.244804, "from_high_reference": -0.00355, "from_low_reference": 0.394083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11176.038997, "fair_value_reference": 8791.246213, "structural_low": 9262.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.000766, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.032484, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.107003, "worst_return": -0.137822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148046, "worst_return": -0.118211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.11109, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247609, "worst_return": 0.032243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"activity_lines": [ 12265.0, 12375.963636, 11961.109524, 11490.189277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12266.0, "volume": 27089, "typical_volume": 28120.9, "trend": 11043.494206, "fair_value": 8706.977016, "relative_strength": 6.751856, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.940651, "energy": 36.603759, "activity_lines": [ 12234.133333, 12346.236364, 12043.938095, 11572.880345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11926.0, "volume": 37933, "typical_volume": 27510.05, "trend": 11093.566602, "fair_value": 8745.215877, "relative_strength": 2.44694, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.394862, "energy": 27.491585, "activity_lines": [ 12128.4, 12256.218182, 12083.747619, 11629.816203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12912.0, "volume": 37094, "typical_volume": 26593.95, "trend": 11176.038997, "fair_value": 8791.246213, "relative_strength": 10.352979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.485485, "energy": 42.566685, "activity_lines": [ 12368.666667, 12353.545455, 12207.702381, 11747.134486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }