{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af603abc-0621-445a-b0f7-65e77f1a362f", "symbol": "002077", "name": "Jiangsu Dagang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.048, "architecture_energy": 76.512, "architecture_maturity": 18.99, "architecture_confidence": 79.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.65, "rotation_up": 10.7, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 34.73, "rotation_down": 73.52, "downward_expansion": 88.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.774, 14.525636, 15.593381, 15.886258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.79, "trend_reference": 16.238667, "distance_from_trend": -0.212374, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.870577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139912, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.452161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.269143, "excess_performance": -0.276543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008427, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139912, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123699, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.030584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199908483, "relative_activity": 1.296617, "balance": 1.030584, "dry_up": 1.469855, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163289, "annualized_volatility": 0.676109, "from_high_reference": -0.372732, "from_low_reference": 0.178802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.238667, "fair_value_reference": 14.870577, "structural_low": 10.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.010464, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.030991, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.298635, "worst_return": -0.169925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.006744, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.055163, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.411972, "worst_return": -0.188571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087609, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.099743, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.768571, "worst_return": -0.171354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.934989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.27, "volume": 274128348, "typical_volume": 142590002.85, "trend": 16.510333, "fair_value": 14.946603, "relative_strength": -18.729681, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.872189, "energy": 1.967851, "activity_lines": [ 16.699333, 16.953455, 16.821667, 16.722559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.01, "volume": 255789313, "typical_volume": 150364465.85, "trend": 16.424333, "fair_value": 14.928782, "relative_strength": -26.313103, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.295727, "energy": 46.035993, "activity_lines": [ 14.942, 16.026364, 16.384238, 16.432215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.48, "volume": 176644908, "typical_volume": 156027322.85, "trend": 16.308, "fair_value": 14.895897, "relative_strength": -28.037615, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.773243, "energy": 79.466559, "activity_lines": [ 13.404667, 15.098, 15.916095, 16.113226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.79, "volume": 199908483, "typical_volume": 154176941.75, "trend": 16.238667, "fair_value": 14.870577, "relative_strength": -23.452161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.048323, "energy": 76.512022, "activity_lines": [ 12.774, 14.525636, 15.593381, 15.886258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }