{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af67e97a-037f-497e-bb0f-13fc05ece533", "symbol": "FFSB", "name": "Flekkefjord Sparebank", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.449, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.257, "architecture_energy": 44.829, "architecture_maturity": 3.319, "architecture_confidence": 71.499, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.57, "rotation_up": 15.57, "upward_expansion": 22.67, "deceleration": 51.47, "rotation_down": 63.77, "downward_expansion": 50.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.649333, 117.336364, 118.179143, 118.133943 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 116.0, "trend_reference": 117.945123, "distance_from_trend": -0.016492, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.13427, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.379054, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003472, "excess_performance": -0.121521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.667974, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1940, "relative_activity": 0.689092, "balance": 2.667974, "dry_up": 0.604287, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018899, "annualized_volatility": 0.099716, "from_high_reference": -0.058589, "from_low_reference": 0.020032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.945123, "fair_value_reference": 112.13427, "structural_low": 113.740829, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006728, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 101.83757, "volume": 60225, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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118.415545, 118.26167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 116.0, "volume": 1940, "typical_volume": 2815.3, "trend": 117.945123, "fair_value": 112.13427, "relative_strength": -12.379054, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.256721, "energy": 44.828965, "activity_lines": [ 116.649333, 117.336364, 118.179143, 118.133943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }