{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af68d1cb-dd95-4357-abc3-0398855bfa11", "symbol": "SETUINFRA", "name": "Setubandhan Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.061, "architecture_energy": 39.153, "architecture_maturity": 19.412, "architecture_confidence": 73.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.3, "rotation_up": 21.88, "upward_expansion": 12.44, "deceleration": 54.68, "rotation_down": 62.49, "downward_expansion": 54.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.421333, 0.43, 0.470381, 0.471484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.464667, "distance_from_trend": -0.117647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.677244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.394605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.226616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02381, "excess_performance": 0.0199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.394605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271566, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.294678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89802, "relative_activity": 0.519223, "balance": 0.294678, "dry_up": 1.244175, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106942, "annualized_volatility": 0.64684, "from_high_reference": -0.474359, "from_low_reference": 0.108108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.464667, "fair_value_reference": 0.677244, "structural_low": 0.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020545, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.005555, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.046512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.035714, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.193548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.0625, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.44375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.576077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.2875, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.226667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.245902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.213115, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.392857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.219178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.220339, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046512, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.85, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 200465.1, "trend": 0.976667, "fair_value": 1.548718, "relative_strength": -41.482685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.201301, "energy": 35.773565, "activity_lines": [ 0.803333, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.43, "volume": 613268, "typical_volume": 188448.85, "trend": 0.468, "fair_value": 0.685577, "relative_strength": -15.812556, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.798868, "energy": 48.182719, "activity_lines": [ 0.440667, 0.464909, 0.493905, 0.482301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.44, "volume": 258880, "typical_volume": 178831.85, "trend": 0.467667, "fair_value": 0.68391, "relative_strength": -13.489298, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.5855, "energy": 39.091742, "activity_lines": [ 0.441333, 0.454364, 0.489667, 0.480495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.44, "volume": 234048, "typical_volume": 185829.8, "trend": 0.466667, "fair_value": 0.682564, "relative_strength": -10.930425, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.272771, "energy": 31.987534, "activity_lines": [ 0.440667, 0.447091, 0.485238, 0.47871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 278014, "typical_volume": 183796.15, "trend": 0.465333, "fair_value": 0.680064, "relative_strength": -18.834805, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.103311, "energy": 36.395753, "activity_lines": [ 0.43, 0.437091, 0.477857, 0.475054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 89802, "typical_volume": 172954.75, "trend": 0.464667, "fair_value": 0.677244, "relative_strength": -19.226616, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.060639, "energy": 39.152724, "activity_lines": [ 0.421333, 0.43, 0.470381, 0.471484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }