{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af694725-0771-4c55-86f1-ec58ac736cdd", "symbol": "ROE", "name": "Goshawk Global Balanced UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.953, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.232, "architecture_energy": 46.548, "architecture_maturity": 18.599, "architecture_confidence": 84.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.03, "rotation_up": 58.12, "upward_expansion": 82.03, "deceleration": 50.54, "rotation_down": 20.46, "downward_expansion": 6.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.782467, 11.732818, 11.710381, 11.628037 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.956, "trend_reference": 11.5516, "distance_from_trend": 0.035008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.094887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.388464, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040919, "excess_performance": -0.010316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035008, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.390977, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 403, "relative_activity": 0.126495, "balance": 4.390977, "dry_up": 0.124847, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016741, "annualized_volatility": 0.108198, "from_high_reference": -0.002669, "from_low_reference": 0.140187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.5516, "fair_value_reference": 10.094887, "structural_low": 10.71, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025617, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.005856, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103573, "worst_return": -0.058653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056733, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071114, "worst_return": 0.024454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079727, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082723, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.227158, "worst_return": 0.06724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0244, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002344, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010232, "active": false }, { "regime": 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11.695964, 11.582905, 11.525852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.792, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 4035.95, "trend": 11.459433, "fair_value": 9.984822, "relative_strength": -2.254894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.74853, "energy": 23.791756, "activity_lines": [ 11.6672, 11.711673, 11.610357, 11.548854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.729, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 4025.85, "trend": 11.480167, "fair_value": 10.005085, "relative_strength": -1.002502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.669562, "energy": 20.188766, "activity_lines": [ 11.687333, 11.710509, 11.630738, 11.566245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.6, "volume": 95, "typical_volume": 4024.0, "trend": 11.497167, "fair_value": 10.025374, "relative_strength": -2.922001, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.211552, "energy": 19.153127, "activity_lines": [ 11.664733, 11.685582, 11.638167, 11.573976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.68, "volume": 76, "typical_volume": 4024.2, "trend": 11.514433, "fair_value": 10.046653, "relative_strength": -3.351313, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.648516, "energy": 23.269369, "activity_lines": [ 11.675133, 11.679855, 11.653681, 11.585772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.747, "volume": 1017, "typical_volume": 4059.8, "trend": 11.533467, "fair_value": 10.069063, "relative_strength": -3.888961, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.771741, "energy": 27.64099, "activity_lines": [ 11.700333, 11.686436, 11.673581, 11.600776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.956, "volume": 403, "typical_volume": 3185.9, "trend": 11.5516, "fair_value": 10.094887, "relative_strength": -2.388464, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.232124, "energy": 46.548414, "activity_lines": [ 11.782467, 11.732818, 11.710381, 11.628037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }