{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af70c943-5097-4ddc-80d8-f739ba65729c", "symbol": "FSMB", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III SHORT DURATION MANAGED MUNICIPAL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.703, "architecture_energy": 15.239, "architecture_maturity": 16.19, "architecture_confidence": 60.898, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.13, "rotation_up": 14.97, "upward_expansion": 11.63, "deceleration": 57.43, "rotation_down": 45.86, "downward_expansion": 63.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.908715, 19.921445, 19.917352, 19.919227 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.96, "trend_reference": 19.923462, "distance_from_trend": 0.001834, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.115331, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.379556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000373, "excess_performance": -0.125998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001834, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044188, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.652247, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 670244, "relative_activity": 1.071197, "balance": 1.652247, "dry_up": 0.838389, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003619, "annualized_volatility": 0.01849, "from_high_reference": -0.005946, "from_low_reference": 0.024484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.923462, "fair_value_reference": 19.115331, "structural_low": 19.784685, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.000253, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.022408, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.008151, "worst_return": -0.013647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002643, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.002351, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.016529, "worst_return": -0.024117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008701, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.032766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020982, 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34.143335, "activity_lines": [ 19.950819, 19.939353, 19.921369, 19.922602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.926928, "volume": 436404, "typical_volume": 634446.85, "trend": 19.914268, "fair_value": 19.08111, "relative_strength": -7.784986, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.044584, "energy": 22.753248, "activity_lines": [ 19.943021, 19.939945, 19.92185, 19.923773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.85, "volume": 532345, "typical_volume": 620499.1, "trend": 19.916711, "fair_value": 19.092072, "relative_strength": -7.361824, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.781963, "energy": 11.734825, "activity_lines": [ 19.911924, 19.926225, 19.915635, 19.919627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.87, "volume": 459314, "typical_volume": 619813.85, "trend": 19.919491, "fair_value": 19.103428, "relative_strength": -7.965056, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.154647, "energy": 27.371, "activity_lines": [ 19.892425, 19.915859, 19.911969, 19.916613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.96, "volume": 670244, "typical_volume": 625696.45, "trend": 19.923462, "fair_value": 19.115331, "relative_strength": -10.379556, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.702655, "energy": 15.239069, "activity_lines": [ 19.908715, 19.921445, 19.917352, 19.919227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }