{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af725d18-23cd-4909-8e09-ca0d757fdbd7", "symbol": "FMAR", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER ETF - MARCH", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.542, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.417, "architecture_energy": 71.249, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.051, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.04, "rotation_up": 63.04, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 59.37, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.720493, 52.498038, 52.129165, 51.37488 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.1942, "trend_reference": 50.309463, "distance_from_trend": 0.05734, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.285529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228914, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.644417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111807, "excess_performance": -0.013818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05734, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035919, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228914, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008524, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111807, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.298446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105358, "relative_activity": 0.418894, "balance": 0.298446, "dry_up": 0.269757, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010024, "annualized_volatility": 0.065656, "from_high_reference": -0.000494, "from_low_reference": 0.170389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.309463, "fair_value_reference": 43.285529, "structural_low": 47.43, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.009584, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.005999, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.07314, "worst_return": -0.048913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033795, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.015861, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.068582, "worst_return": -0.029324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072478, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025704, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.116993, "worst_return": 0.030777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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52.078413, 52.013496, 51.275078, 50.462786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.5849, "volume": 58182, "typical_volume": 262182.35, "trend": 49.626237, "fair_value": 42.856476, "relative_strength": -1.686785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.501814, "energy": 68.212127, "activity_lines": [ 52.265147, 52.137062, 51.486054, 50.66528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.3443, "volume": 49149, "typical_volume": 261284.7, "trend": 49.79438, "fair_value": 42.961523, "relative_strength": -0.540789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.298859, "energy": 74.659039, "activity_lines": [ 52.321647, 52.193884, 51.651903, 50.840638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.2703, "volume": 60633, "typical_volume": 260129.3, "trend": 49.952057, "fair_value": 43.065051, "relative_strength": -0.059379, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.120595, "energy": 70.124851, "activity_lines": [ 52.327307, 52.225536, 51.790255, 51.000375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.688, "volume": 56251, "typical_volume": 258570.95, "trend": 50.125323, "fair_value": 43.173772, "relative_strength": -0.278722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.803016, "energy": 67.131428, "activity_lines": [ 52.468467, 52.322384, 51.947005, 51.176888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.1942, "volume": 105358, "typical_volume": 251514.75, "trend": 50.309463, "fair_value": 43.285529, "relative_strength": -2.644417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.416592, "energy": 71.248744, "activity_lines": [ 52.720493, 52.498038, 52.129165, 51.37488 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }