{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af7e99b2-373f-41fa-ab68-5abdb4ce4675", "symbol": "002357", "name": "Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.313, "architecture_energy": 61.244, "architecture_maturity": 46.977, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 11.31, "deceleration": 55.3, "rotation_down": 57.99, "downward_expansion": 84.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.658, 8.890727, 9.684857, 10.627312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.89, "trend_reference": 11.692333, "distance_from_trend": -0.239673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.262543, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.711676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318252, "excess_performance": -0.325651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033576, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07594, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.469045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318252, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.345027, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30713511, "relative_activity": 0.726464, "balance": 0.345027, "dry_up": 1.099056, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106862, "annualized_volatility": 0.4829, "from_high_reference": -0.462515, "from_low_reference": 0.109863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.692333, "fair_value_reference": 8.262543, "structural_low": 8.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03843, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.00473, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.189724, "worst_return": -0.132231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015652, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049944, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.547431, "worst_return": -0.081909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.262204, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.149376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.591947, "worst_return": -0.067538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 87.866708, "activity_lines": [ 9.484667, 10.034, 11.015238, 11.6596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.96, "volume": 38515369, "typical_volume": 47699113.95, "trend": 11.930686, "fair_value": 8.215791, "relative_strength": -27.96708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.815214, "energy": 86.057672, "activity_lines": [ 9.248667, 9.740727, 10.709762, 11.464562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.72, "volume": 74337503, "typical_volume": 47711425.1, "trend": 11.888868, "fair_value": 8.229761, "relative_strength": -22.597726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.383598, "energy": 86.06205, "activity_lines": [ 9.031333, 9.454, 10.410952, 11.257421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.18, "volume": 42490475, "typical_volume": 44458408.65, "trend": 11.816109, "fair_value": 8.239708, "relative_strength": -27.240716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.490003, "energy": 86.695124, "activity_lines": [ 8.678667, 9.135273, 10.09581, 11.018139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.62, "volume": 38322535, "typical_volume": 43252565.7, "trend": 11.751712, "fair_value": 8.250853, "relative_strength": -21.685849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.408905, "energy": 66.936939, "activity_lines": [ 8.600667, 8.966727, 9.860619, 10.811938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.89, "volume": 30713511, "typical_volume": 42278101.15, "trend": 11.692333, "fair_value": 8.262543, "relative_strength": -22.711676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.312949, "energy": 61.244131, "activity_lines": [ 8.658, 8.890727, 9.684857, 10.627312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }