{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af81fa44-35ed-498e-a1ee-45ef9a742045", "symbol": "VLN", "name": "Valens", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.801, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.586, "architecture_energy": 38.379, "architecture_maturity": 8.84, "architecture_confidence": 62.686, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.76, "rotation_up": 15.36, "upward_expansion": 21.83, "deceleration": 52.43, "rotation_down": 57.89, "downward_expansion": 46.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.691333, 1.838909, 2.101762, 2.011462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.74, "trend_reference": 1.902667, "distance_from_trend": -0.085494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.20141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.209598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.006198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12987, "excess_performance": 0.004245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053137, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.209598, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.467371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160062, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.997797, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3318664, "relative_activity": 0.283942, "balance": 1.997797, "dry_up": 0.38998, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.337383, "annualized_volatility": 1.069012, "from_high_reference": -0.530997, "from_low_reference": 0.581818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.902667, "fair_value_reference": 2.20141, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038522, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.063917, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.462366, "worst_return": -0.089202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.109091, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44086, "worst_return": -0.155779, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.067571, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.135491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113636, "worst_return": 0.021505, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.004545, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.166781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.004545, "worst_return": -0.004545, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.258993, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047393, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.178947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.314516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207071, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.45, "volume": 1840940, "typical_volume": 2293874.85, "trend": 3.109667, "fair_value": 4.667929, "relative_strength": -38.895641, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.977798, "energy": 27.157329, "activity_lines": [ 2.506667, 2.504364, 2.47919, 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2.232095, 2.066645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.08, "volume": 4887640, "typical_volume": 11461060.75, "trend": 1.913333, "fair_value": 2.22391, "relative_strength": -2.552184, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.108932, "energy": 19.048916, "activity_lines": [ 2.114, 2.342364, 2.241429, 2.078452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.71, "volume": 6209678, "typical_volume": 11545112.45, "trend": 1.920667, "fair_value": 2.218141, "relative_strength": -17.406291, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.003676, "energy": 13.286959, "activity_lines": [ 1.965333, 2.19, 2.21281, 2.065333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.63, "volume": 4126593, "typical_volume": 11566307.1, "trend": 1.927, "fair_value": 2.212756, "relative_strength": -19.275684, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.597084, "energy": 22.318945, "activity_lines": [ 1.823333, 2.042727, 2.175476, 2.046581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.57, "volume": 4577109, "typical_volume": 11668564.55, "trend": 1.927333, "fair_value": 2.206667, "relative_strength": -22.120799, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.308244, "energy": 32.836462, "activity_lines": [ 1.715333, 1.910364, 2.131095, 2.023548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.74, "volume": 3318664, "typical_volume": 11687808.85, "trend": 1.902667, "fair_value": 2.20141, "relative_strength": -16.006198, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.586404, "energy": 38.37906, "activity_lines": [ 1.691333, 1.838909, 2.101762, 2.011462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }