{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af84575a-e4cf-4de9-8323-1af411f90a83", "symbol": "OHB", "name": "OHB SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.658, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.004, "architecture_energy": 44.852, "architecture_maturity": 21.211, "architecture_confidence": 72.291, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.55, "rotation_up": 15.31, "upward_expansion": 22.87, "deceleration": 52.21, "rotation_down": 69.35, "downward_expansion": 54.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 234.766667, 263.812851, 311.80361, 307.296571 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 228.5, "trend_reference": 291.133962, "distance_from_trend": -0.215138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.84304, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.200436, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.539426, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088315, "excess_performance": -0.152955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.265268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.200436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.66087, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005394, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.072304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088315, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.420913, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100409, "relative_activity": 1.261012, "balance": 0.420913, "dry_up": 1.248739, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.394661, "annualized_volatility": 1.111886, "from_high_reference": -0.665945, "from_low_reference": 2.598001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 291.133962, "fair_value_reference": 103.84304, "structural_low": 202.704726, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029466, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051095, "worst_return": 0.007837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001823, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04967, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006573, "worst_return": -0.010219, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.214544, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.227819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.351684, "worst_return": 0.077403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.215898, 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327.683479, 337.720535, 317.552311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 238.5, "volume": 73657, "typical_volume": 75283.1, "trend": 284.671235, "fair_value": 101.390183, "relative_strength": 13.059389, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.647154, "energy": 35.194918, "activity_lines": [ 255.533333, 302.797274, 329.766495, 314.83303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 227.5, "volume": 57753, "typical_volume": 76079.0, "trend": 288.143889, "fair_value": 102.64677, "relative_strength": 4.176575, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.381017, "energy": 44.996699, "activity_lines": [ 243.566667, 279.926374, 320.703748, 311.144563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 228.5, "volume": 100409, "typical_volume": 79625.7, "trend": 291.133962, "fair_value": 103.84304, "relative_strength": 0.539426, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.003742, "energy": 44.852379, "activity_lines": [ 234.766667, 263.812851, 311.80361, 307.296571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }