{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af9485b8-53f6-40c2-8b8d-19eeda4c8e91", "symbol": "MINT-B", "name": "Manulife Multifactor Developed International Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.3, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.581, "architecture_energy": 62.811, "architecture_maturity": 57.299, "architecture_confidence": 68.185, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.72, "rotation_up": 60.41, "upward_expansion": 83.06, "deceleration": 66.08, "rotation_down": 24.15, "downward_expansion": 9.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.327333, 45.093094, 44.408494, 43.853658 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.25, "trend_reference": 43.280958, "distance_from_trend": 0.068599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.062283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.268305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080103, "excess_performance": -0.040319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036541, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053528, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033539, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080103, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2200, "relative_activity": 0.470588, "balance": 0.47929, "dry_up": 0.358289, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017867, "annualized_volatility": 0.169305, "from_high_reference": -0.002373, "from_low_reference": 0.232169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.280958, "fair_value_reference": 35.062283, "structural_low": 39.540001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.010794, "positive_rate": 0.707317, "directional_follow_through": 0.707317, "median_excess_return": -0.002576, "regime_survival": 0.756098, "best_return": 0.056298, "worst_return": -0.096597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036345, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.006281, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.085476, "worst_return": -0.081913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.080103, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.007102, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.148567, "worst_return": -0.18087, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.006408, "energy": 88.080603, "activity_lines": [ 45.046677, 44.466934, 43.686422, 43.290919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.439999, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 4800.0, "trend": 42.854017, "fair_value": 34.725833, "relative_strength": -2.460589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.710152, "energy": 76.099949, "activity_lines": [ 44.906136, 44.554092, 43.817238, 43.402622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.290001, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 4805.0, "trend": 42.985958, "fair_value": 34.829199, "relative_strength": -2.928564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.072053, "energy": 58.375508, "activity_lines": [ 44.693046, 44.580196, 43.933006, 43.495266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.43, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 4825.0, "trend": 43.138958, "fair_value": 34.943737, "relative_strength": 0.054043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.71867, "energy": 56.712181, "activity_lines": [ 44.902667, 44.781441, 44.142345, 43.652946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.25, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 4675.0, "trend": 43.280958, "fair_value": 35.062283, "relative_strength": -1.268305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.580729, "energy": 62.811351, "activity_lines": [ 45.327333, 45.093094, 44.408494, 43.853658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }