{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af99d1a3-5b4c-471f-8f2c-ae39f779396f", "symbol": "002931", "name": "Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.215, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.32, "architecture_energy": 68.961, "architecture_maturity": 22.5, "architecture_confidence": 66.953, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.15, "rotation_up": 11.78, "upward_expansion": 18.01, "deceleration": 34.32, "rotation_down": 70.89, "downward_expansion": 89.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.219334, 54.404431, 58.053848, 62.220328 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 52.18, "trend_reference": 67.876814, "distance_from_trend": -0.231254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.45544, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.133677, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.184184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.475736, "excess_performance": -0.483136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231254, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.133677, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.942435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111842, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.475736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847215, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67602548, "relative_activity": 1.265304, "balance": 0.847215, "dry_up": 1.113887, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.241205, "annualized_volatility": 0.941299, "from_high_reference": -0.558171, "from_low_reference": 2.621096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.876814, "fair_value_reference": 24.45544, "structural_low": 39.689999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.030786, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.047014, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.126193, "worst_return": -0.211539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039792, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039994, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.678753, "worst_return": -0.375387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048571, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.065147, "worst_return": -0.136939, 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"relative_strength": -4.653618, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.627873, "energy": 62.038095, "activity_lines": [ 53.016078, 58.215138, 60.723319, 64.581981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.900002, "volume": 51413544, "typical_volume": 53841013.7, "trend": 67.194148, "fair_value": 24.192549, "relative_strength": 2.100155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.522351, "energy": 72.352133, "activity_lines": [ 48.817828, 55.455785, 58.954584, 63.188983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.18, "volume": 67602548, "typical_volume": 53427922.95, "trend": 67.876814, "fair_value": 24.45544, "relative_strength": 11.184184, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.320228, "energy": 68.961431, "activity_lines": [ 48.219334, 54.404431, 58.053848, 62.220328 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }