{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af9ad968-e88d-4ed9-b657-c61607886710", "symbol": "4927", "name": "Apex International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.07, "architecture_energy": 74.531, "architecture_maturity": 29.024, "architecture_confidence": 90.446, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.85, "rotation_up": 10.72, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 37.77, "rotation_down": 71.35, "downward_expansion": 90.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.686666, 35.136363, 41.178809, 42.927957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.049999, "trend_reference": 43.361666, "distance_from_trend": -0.237806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.837688, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.877938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007508, "excess_performance": -0.35324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071761, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.529396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.538331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.264232, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7920652, "relative_activity": 0.147291, "balance": 0.264232, "dry_up": 0.292033, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191319, "annualized_volatility": 0.767668, "from_high_reference": -0.498483, "from_low_reference": 0.636138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.361666, "fair_value_reference": 39.837688, "structural_low": 26.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02965, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038348, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.336134, "worst_return": -0.183755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052698, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.51074, "worst_return": -0.114385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.212305, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.349944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.310263, "worst_return": -0.434128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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21522861, "typical_volume": 55703045.25, "trend": 43.716666, "fair_value": 40.17038, "relative_strength": -30.291463, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.713438, "energy": 68.86256, "activity_lines": [ 33.226667, 37.942727, 43.543095, 44.273871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.349998, "volume": 11556437, "typical_volume": 54431936.15, "trend": 43.545, "fair_value": 40.01429, "relative_strength": -31.556488, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.593291, "energy": 67.502607, "activity_lines": [ 32.756666, 36.39909, 42.351904, 43.605053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 33.049999, "volume": 7920652, "typical_volume": 53775551.6, "trend": 43.361666, "fair_value": 39.837688, "relative_strength": -30.877938, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.070132, "energy": 74.530849, "activity_lines": [ 32.686666, 35.136363, 41.178809, 42.927957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }