{ "ticker": { "uuid": "af9dd3ce-fcc7-43b8-bccf-5a559c0cf5b5", "symbol": "6821", "name": "LinkCom Manufacturing Co.,LTD.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.478, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.935, "architecture_energy": 55.817, "architecture_maturity": 15.99, "architecture_confidence": 75.198, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.26, "rotation_up": 14.61, "upward_expansion": 26.83, "deceleration": 49.64, "rotation_down": 70.16, "downward_expansion": 56.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.296665, 46.201817, 52.245684, 51.966535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.099998, "trend_reference": 49.521879, "distance_from_trend": -0.149871, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.707724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.540852, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155789, "excess_performance": -0.285583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009405, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110461, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.769474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 702926, "relative_activity": 0.121088, "balance": 1.769474, "dry_up": 0.154008, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.237256, "annualized_volatility": 0.864904, "from_high_reference": -0.448231, "from_low_reference": 0.25947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.521879, "fair_value_reference": 41.707724, "structural_low": 34.753999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.036649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003529, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029412, "worst_return": -0.087342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025317, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068627, "worst_return": -0.040576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.154412, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018529, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.479058, "worst_return": -0.046835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", 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58.696279, 54.342055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.950001, "volume": 1954173, "typical_volume": 6095354.6, "trend": 48.829884, "fair_value": 41.724064, "relative_strength": -25.727173, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.130266, "energy": 16.683963, "activity_lines": [ 52.936667, 58.051818, 57.684393, 54.042348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.150002, "volume": 1143014, "typical_volume": 6137105.3, "trend": 49.064947, "fair_value": 41.724511, "relative_strength": -29.509358, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.444463, "energy": 34.816299, "activity_lines": [ 48.116667, 54.897273, 56.463841, 53.611388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.099998, "volume": 1083081, "typical_volume": 6180709.35, "trend": 49.167211, "fair_value": 41.711928, "relative_strength": -32.965009, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.038597, "energy": 53.4555, "activity_lines": [ 43.976666, 51.311818, 54.924382, 52.968488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.849998, "volume": 647100, "typical_volume": 6199763.95, "trend": 49.313061, "fair_value": 41.702855, "relative_strength": -30.965676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.836975, "energy": 58.992235, "activity_lines": [ 41.773333, 48.377272, 53.536981, 52.431894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 42.099998, "volume": 702926, "typical_volume": 5805091.35, "trend": 49.521879, "fair_value": 41.707724, "relative_strength": -30.540852, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.935322, "energy": 55.817351, "activity_lines": [ 41.296665, 46.201817, 52.245684, 51.966535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }