{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afa30362-cf65-4f12-8322-9f2bec45e9ea", "symbol": "RSW", "name": "Renishaw plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.605, "architecture_energy": 36.354, "architecture_maturity": 48.833, "architecture_confidence": 63.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.82, "rotation_up": 40.04, "upward_expansion": 68.39, "deceleration": 72.91, "rotation_down": 26.33, "downward_expansion": 8.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 5071.733333, 5044.418182, 4995.347619, 4783.5206 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5235.0, "trend_reference": 4500.490535, "distance_from_trend": 0.163207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3605.561469, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.451924, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.626148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.377687, "excess_performance": 0.311409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132661, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.451924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.196261, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.377687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789525, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 396640, "relative_activity": 0.836617, "balance": 0.789525, "dry_up": 1.116979, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071178, "annualized_volatility": 0.391327, "from_high_reference": -0.046448, "from_low_reference": 0.830803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4500.490535, "fair_value_reference": 3605.561469, "structural_low": 3465.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030989, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030997, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.115108, "worst_return": -0.068881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.064902, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264487, "worst_return": -0.134684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.183856, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.131582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.575101, "worst_return": -0.20739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049342, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.499418, "energy": 30.198119, "activity_lines": [ 4995.266667, 5038.981818, 4917.319048, 4696.856092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4948.0, "volume": 689587, "typical_volume": 516061.3, "trend": 4444.319084, "fair_value": 3596.435772, "relative_strength": 14.286913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.559382, "energy": 21.802593, "activity_lines": [ 4984.666667, 5013.0, 4945.209524, 4732.508928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5235.0, "volume": 396640, "typical_volume": 474100.05, "trend": 4500.490535, "fair_value": 3605.561469, "relative_strength": 19.626148, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.604888, "energy": 36.354412, "activity_lines": [ 5071.733333, 5044.418182, 4995.347619, 4783.5206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }