{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afa55179-668d-463e-9909-fa7b86717c37", "symbol": "001696", "name": "Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.853, "architecture_energy": 64.508, "architecture_maturity": 17.962, "architecture_confidence": 76.602, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.37, "rotation_up": 8.26, "upward_expansion": 12.07, "deceleration": 40.19, "rotation_down": 73.83, "downward_expansion": 85.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.26, 17.259848, 17.701101, 18.295523 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.9, "trend_reference": 19.261557, "distance_from_trend": -0.174522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.739192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.454221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223633, "excess_performance": -0.231033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050133, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083299, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350914723, "relative_activity": 2.104991, "balance": 0.755864, "dry_up": 1.375627, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178349, "annualized_volatility": 0.897653, "from_high_reference": -0.432143, "from_low_reference": 0.171702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.261557, "fair_value_reference": 16.739192, "structural_low": 13.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.023827, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.000464, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.62884, "worst_return": -0.150922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.063828, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.029692, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.942053, "worst_return": -0.150138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.109466, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.099118, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.646027, "worst_return": -0.102339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 182655024.8, "trend": 20.138224, "fair_value": 16.531166, "relative_strength": -23.271114, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.716839, "energy": 28.602267, "activity_lines": [ 21.052, 19.849998, 19.173705, 19.543904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.32, "volume": 175408106, "typical_volume": 186644376.55, "trend": 19.919557, "fair_value": 16.585261, "relative_strength": -29.828689, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.241183, "energy": 21.428005, "activity_lines": [ 18.857333, 19.206575, 18.782244, 19.23305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.46, "volume": 198413349, "typical_volume": 174377649.7, "trend": 19.707557, "fair_value": 16.633469, "relative_strength": -33.179915, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.674548, "energy": 46.03674, "activity_lines": [ 16.877333, 18.450952, 18.336879, 18.880821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.19, "volume": 192564775, "typical_volume": 159954576.65, "trend": 19.454557, "fair_value": 16.680258, "relative_strength": -32.598816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.842443, "energy": 56.45332, "activity_lines": [ 15.464, 17.68623, 17.918561, 18.52485 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.9, "volume": 350914723, "typical_volume": 166706029.65, "trend": 19.261557, "fair_value": 16.739192, "relative_strength": -27.454221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.852682, "energy": 64.508109, "activity_lines": [ 15.26, 17.259848, 17.701101, 18.295523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }