{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afa61249-20ac-430a-b8bc-71bafcd7e186", "symbol": "252410", "name": "KB KBSTAR 200 Futures Inverse Securities ETF Investment Trust - Equity-Derivatives", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.667, "architecture_energy": 27.396, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.12, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.35, "rotation_up": 33.32, "upward_expansion": 20.99, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.38, "downward_expansion": 54.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1431.866667, 1353.254545, 1383.195238, 1536.135484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1475.0, "trend_reference": 1778.266667, "distance_from_trend": -0.170541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4589.217949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.678594, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -60.196546, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.408818, "excess_performance": -0.638646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268925, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.678594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022588, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.601965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19281, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.408818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.049866, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134712, "relative_activity": 0.375145, "balance": 2.049866, "dry_up": 0.924949, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112907, "annualized_volatility": 0.495011, "from_high_reference": -0.681081, "from_low_reference": 0.387582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1778.266667, "fair_value_reference": 4589.217949, "structural_low": 1063.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.038961, "positive_rate": 0.258065, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": -0.074926, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.293956, "worst_return": -0.232203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026103, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.049549, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.097436, "worst_return": -0.385491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037101, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.048316, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.068718, "worst_return": -0.613371, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1450.0, "volume": 198430, "typical_volume": 395069.25, "trend": 1877.6, "fair_value": 4644.762821, "relative_strength": -66.062602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.081389, "energy": 39.280471, "activity_lines": [ 1358.8, 1294.345455, 1406.452381, 1589.105376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1405.0, "volume": 704311, "typical_volume": 365842.1, "trend": 1823.433333, "fair_value": 4616.910256, "relative_strength": -65.323888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.403864, "energy": 27.725741, "activity_lines": [ 1391.866667, 1317.854545, 1389.609524, 1558.615054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1475.0, "volume": 134712, "typical_volume": 359093.25, "trend": 1778.266667, "fair_value": 4589.217949, "relative_strength": -60.196546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.666568, "energy": 27.395667, "activity_lines": [ 1431.866667, 1353.254545, 1383.195238, 1536.135484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }