{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afaaebcc-7bc1-41ef-a6b0-6632ad3f5e88", "symbol": "SUWG", "name": "iShares MSCI World SRI UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.458, "architecture_energy": 41.6, "architecture_maturity": 62.667, "architecture_confidence": 87.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.43, "rotation_up": 37.58, "upward_expansion": 61.71, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 27.73, "downward_expansion": 23.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.6574, 8.680232, 8.576099, 8.426297 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.847, "trend_reference": 8.261724, "distance_from_trend": 0.070842, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.201222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228541, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.687057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110611, "excess_performance": 0.059376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070842, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035047, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016871, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.474376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183160, "relative_activity": 1.158, "balance": 1.474376, "dry_up": 1.352297, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019477, "annualized_volatility": 0.127233, "from_high_reference": -0.001467, "from_low_reference": 0.213876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.261724, "fair_value_reference": 7.201222, "structural_low": 7.471, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006328, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026835, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020218, "worst_return": -0.056386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001428, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032833, "worst_return": -0.131347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036627, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119378, "worst_return": -0.01168, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036551, 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"2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077179, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106458, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016416, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.004175, "active": false }, { "regime": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.572864, "energy": 62.422281, "activity_lines": [ 8.701333, 8.675643, 8.480676, 8.342771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.587, "volume": 176040, "typical_volume": 150279.8, "trend": 8.214549, "fair_value": 7.168782, "relative_strength": 0.164782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.242012, "energy": 49.643461, "activity_lines": [ 8.650867, 8.668893, 8.509876, 8.368345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.502, "volume": 218241, "typical_volume": 154709.25, "trend": 8.236194, "fair_value": 7.18364, "relative_strength": -1.95756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.960101, "energy": 31.950261, "activity_lines": [ 8.588133, 8.643679, 8.528214, 8.38689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.847, "volume": 183160, "typical_volume": 158169.2, "trend": 8.261724, "fair_value": 7.201222, "relative_strength": 1.687057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.458442, "energy": 41.600143, "activity_lines": [ 8.6574, 8.680232, 8.576099, 8.426297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }