{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afaef93b-031e-48a1-a4c5-d6e07ed14488", "symbol": "PGL", "name": "Pilbara Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.307, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.409, "architecture_energy": 63.04, "architecture_maturity": 14.727, "architecture_confidence": 94.893, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.69, "rotation_up": 14.61, "upward_expansion": 14.25, "deceleration": 38.29, "rotation_down": 62.92, "downward_expansion": 87.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.484333, 0.499727, 0.5395, 0.552957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.505, "trend_reference": 0.566833, "distance_from_trend": -0.109085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.345207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.462888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.391474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158332, "excess_performance": -0.222038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.462888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.686262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158332, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.469745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 925232, "relative_activity": 0.40306, "balance": 0.469745, "dry_up": 0.353947, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119573, "annualized_volatility": 0.891945, "from_high_reference": -0.405882, "from_low_reference": 0.60318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.566833, "fair_value_reference": 0.345207, "structural_low": 0.367499, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.017092, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.621054, "worst_return": -0.250001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.083334, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058701, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083334, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071298, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.454548, "worst_return": -0.312501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 651569, "typical_volume": 3047940.0, "trend": 0.574333, "fair_value": 0.342419, "relative_strength": -5.319594, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.830243, "energy": 40.744665, "activity_lines": [ 0.524667, 0.540636, 0.574048, 0.576688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.485, "volume": 635007, "typical_volume": 2898882.25, "trend": 0.574, "fair_value": 0.343028, "relative_strength": -8.474558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.407986, "energy": 66.266336, "activity_lines": [ 0.506333, 0.526636, 0.565119, 0.570925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.45, "volume": 1125880, "typical_volume": 2692105.65, "trend": 0.5715, "fair_value": 0.343989, "relative_strength": -15.037604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.74673, "energy": 73.057406, "activity_lines": [ 0.483667, 0.510273, 0.553333, 0.562925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.48, "volume": 563853, "typical_volume": 2523022.9, "trend": 0.568, "fair_value": 0.344759, "relative_strength": -11.821156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.68867, "energy": 71.546932, "activity_lines": [ 0.479, 0.502182, 0.545048, 0.557021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.505, "volume": 925232, "typical_volume": 2295519.4, "trend": 0.566833, "fair_value": 0.345207, "relative_strength": -10.391474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.408584, "energy": 63.040228, "activity_lines": [ 0.484333, 0.499727, 0.5395, 0.552957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }