{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afb03f6b-ca17-4dd6-aacb-b8bcc66d71d4", "symbol": "JPNE", "name": "UBS Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.652, "architecture_energy": 34.173, "architecture_maturity": 59.793, "architecture_confidence": 72.388, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.92, "rotation_up": 40.81, "upward_expansion": 68.67, "deceleration": 82.64, "rotation_down": 27.15, "downward_expansion": 16.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.811332, 42.91109, 42.284214, 41.469462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.57, "trend_reference": 40.477166, "distance_from_trend": 0.076409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.981891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.453211, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.390736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105557, "excess_performance": -0.065335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.453211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.497289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21513, "relative_activity": 0.88263, "balance": 10.497289, "dry_up": 0.646402, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030914, "annualized_volatility": 0.194993, "from_high_reference": -0.015145, "from_low_reference": 0.400514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.477166, "fair_value_reference": 29.981891, "structural_low": 36.384998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030327, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018475, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.062942, "worst_return": -0.064936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063542, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.017236, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.184705, "worst_return": -0.09531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.145557, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006966, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.255304, "worst_return": 0.017073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03135, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.259146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072748, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.129999, "volume": 472, "typical_volume": 3117.4, "trend": 19.601567, "fair_value": 17.588678, "relative_strength": 3.9786, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.378177, "energy": 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39.8325, "fair_value": 29.573878, "relative_strength": -0.552141, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.363883, "energy": 52.820088, "activity_lines": [ 42.926333, 42.772636, 41.707143, 40.927968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.904999, "volume": 13978, "typical_volume": 29863.8, "trend": 40.07, "fair_value": 29.710224, "relative_strength": 2.032483, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.299895, "energy": 44.194592, "activity_lines": [ 42.828666, 42.855363, 41.926309, 41.126193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.099998, "volume": 3432, "typical_volume": 26812.2, "trend": 40.279333, "fair_value": 29.84141, "relative_strength": -0.755185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.952099, "energy": 32.448217, "activity_lines": [ 42.546332, 42.756363, 42.045738, 41.257161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.57, "volume": 21513, "typical_volume": 24373.75, "trend": 40.477166, "fair_value": 29.981891, "relative_strength": -0.390736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.652227, "energy": 34.173352, "activity_lines": [ 42.811332, 42.91109, 42.284214, 41.469462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }