{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afb443b2-1f92-4e63-b99c-d7c412df1028", "symbol": "600992", "name": "Guizhou Wire Rope Incorporated Company", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.741, "architecture_energy": 31.437, "architecture_maturity": 86.698, "architecture_confidence": 56.891, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.16, "rotation_up": 23.13, "upward_expansion": 15.28, "deceleration": 66.74, "rotation_down": 41.86, "downward_expansion": 65.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.958667, 9.954, 10.631286, 11.220108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 12.049333, "distance_from_trend": -0.15763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.2467, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.287554, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.221485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266618, "excess_performance": -0.223415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.287554, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029117, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.27885, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47153151, "relative_activity": 1.079919, "balance": 2.27885, "dry_up": 1.953726, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142327, "annualized_volatility": 0.627694, "from_high_reference": -0.360025, "from_low_reference": 0.195524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.049333, "fair_value_reference": 14.2467, "structural_low": 8.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.039269, "positive_rate": 0.68, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": 0.022572, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.157895, "worst_return": -0.335606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003717, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035941, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.137899, "worst_return": -0.193133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.160453, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.145065, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.235392, "worst_return": -0.251737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.06, "volume": 107448930, "typical_volume": 40774682.2, "trend": 12.292333, "fair_value": 14.337804, "relative_strength": -28.845987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.02365, "energy": 43.263273, "activity_lines": [ 10.113333, 10.250364, 10.938143, 11.540473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.34, "volume": 55588500, "typical_volume": 42524227.15, "trend": 12.163333, "fair_value": 14.288282, "relative_strength": -26.222638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.851034, "energy": 38.710616, "activity_lines": [ 9.92, 10.002, 10.736667, 11.35 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 47153151, "typical_volume": 43663614.7, "trend": 12.049333, "fair_value": 14.2467, "relative_strength": -21.221485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.740884, "energy": 31.437379, "activity_lines": [ 9.958667, 9.954, 10.631286, 11.220108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }