{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afb9e345-57c3-4b8c-8fb4-be53491f51c6", "symbol": "CARA", "name": "Carasent AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.287, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.896, "architecture_energy": 59.553, "architecture_maturity": 19.111, "architecture_confidence": 52.169, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.52, "rotation_up": 70.54, "upward_expansion": 61.46, "deceleration": 21.31, "rotation_down": 17.47, "downward_expansion": 19.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.07, 24.4, 23.924524, 23.810645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.700001, "trend_reference": 23.97, "distance_from_trend": 0.113892, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.427831, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30704, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.840787, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1125, "excess_performance": 0.051006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113892, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045527, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30704, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053441, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 452870, "relative_activity": 1.144548, "balance": 0.592368, "dry_up": 0.754831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054595, "annualized_volatility": 0.23687, "from_high_reference": -0.115894, "from_low_reference": 0.221968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.97, "fair_value_reference": 20.427831, "structural_low": 21.85, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01461, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030878, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.188095, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107182, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057866, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.706422, "worst_return": -0.240851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107468, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.232081, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.486239, "worst_return": -0.302128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.111905, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.184719, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.262994, "worst_return": -0.370213, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.197015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086022, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.205352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152263, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125683, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018557, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094262, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.826667, "volume": 3367, "typical_volume": 4047.75, "trend": 13.588178, "fair_value": 22.760723, "relative_strength": -12.120668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.347204, "energy": 9.138789, "activity_lines": [ 23.653333, 23.381818, 23.389286, 23.642581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 442694, "typical_volume": 447127.15, "trend": 24.231667, "fair_value": 20.208643, "relative_strength": -13.247917, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.36997, "energy": 11.457013, "activity_lines": [ 23.916667, 23.524546, 23.465, 23.636452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.85, "volume": 169724, "typical_volume": 412183.7, "trend": 24.121667, "fair_value": 20.270972, "relative_strength": -15.252646, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.058302, "energy": 15.21872, "activity_lines": [ 23.983333, 23.609091, 23.506905, 23.611828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 129386, "typical_volume": 385964.25, "trend": 24.046667, "fair_value": 20.342788, "relative_strength": -13.273196, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.857218, "energy": 27.753321, "activity_lines": [ 24.223333, 23.817273, 23.615714, 23.639462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 452870, "typical_volume": 395675.8, "trend": 23.97, "fair_value": 20.427831, "relative_strength": -6.840787, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.896399, "energy": 59.553106, "activity_lines": [ 25.07, 24.4, 23.924524, 23.810645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }