{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afbf2f0d-1c6d-425b-a11b-94b4c4f72cc6", "symbol": "DJAN", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY DEEP BUFFER ETF - JANUARY", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.743, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.292, "architecture_energy": 79.003, "architecture_maturity": 38.799, "architecture_confidence": 81.348, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.26, "rotation_up": 66.68, "upward_expansion": 92.13, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 23.11, "downward_expansion": 16.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.889747, 45.682964, 45.38881, 44.92188 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.335, "trend_reference": 44.39611, "distance_from_trend": 0.043673, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.109908, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.152073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060904, "excess_performance": -0.06472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000561, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.830467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32229, "relative_activity": 0.468835, "balance": 2.830467, "dry_up": 0.674984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010114, "annualized_volatility": 0.066333, "from_high_reference": -0.000352, "from_low_reference": 0.130398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.39611, "fair_value_reference": 39.109908, "structural_low": 41.855, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.008713, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.004779, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.025446, "worst_return": -0.039321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.027902, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017819, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.050892, "worst_return": -0.007433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055459, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.043645, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.077023, "worst_return": -0.000814, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 63.339456, "energy": 66.4432, "activity_lines": [ 45.527333, 45.444731, 45.113631, 44.687587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.8278, "volume": 52561, "typical_volume": 76125.95, "trend": 44.305427, "fair_value": 39.023401, "relative_strength": -3.052436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.236282, "energy": 71.938292, "activity_lines": [ 45.6556, 45.522627, 45.23433, 44.79094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.335, "volume": 32229, "typical_volume": 68742.75, "trend": 44.39611, "fair_value": 39.109908, "relative_strength": -5.152073, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.291996, "energy": 79.003129, "activity_lines": [ 45.889747, 45.682964, 45.38881, 44.92188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }