{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afc03e25-f7db-4032-9d9f-fb815a3953e2", "symbol": "BONAV-A", "name": "Bonava AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.641, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.899, "architecture_energy": 14.074, "architecture_maturity": 5.592, "architecture_confidence": 52.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.23, "rotation_up": 39.17, "upward_expansion": 37.96, "deceleration": 30.37, "rotation_down": 18.27, "downward_expansion": 41.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.773333, 9.641818, 9.374238, 9.518688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.1, "trend_reference": 9.990667, "distance_from_trend": 0.010944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.947494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.599343, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.192, "excess_performance": -0.253494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.249489, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8244, "relative_activity": 0.8718, "balance": 1.249489, "dry_up": 0.681821, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068926, "annualized_volatility": 0.492568, "from_high_reference": -0.254613, "from_low_reference": 0.231707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.990667, "fair_value_reference": 10.947494, "structural_low": 8.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.012097, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.033766, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.377778, "worst_return": -0.27743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033754, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081872, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.422222, "worst_return": -0.44699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.169643, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.339447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.340909, "worst_return": -0.453347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022321, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -17.9031, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.125486, "energy": 23.937916, "activity_lines": [ 9.666667, 9.311818, 9.218095, 9.568602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.45, "volume": 964, "typical_volume": 9172.65, "trend": 10.054, "fair_value": 11.086917, "relative_strength": -17.652098, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.439703, "energy": 23.568289, "activity_lines": [ 9.66, 9.37, 9.233952, 9.526731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.85, "volume": 10762, "typical_volume": 9269.05, "trend": 10.020667, "fair_value": 11.02057, "relative_strength": -14.774042, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.422875, "energy": 11.495794, "activity_lines": [ 9.706667, 9.490909, 9.291476, 9.51357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.1, "volume": 8244, "typical_volume": 9456.3, "trend": 9.990667, "fair_value": 10.947494, "relative_strength": -13.599343, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.898688, "energy": 14.073999, "activity_lines": [ 9.773333, 9.641818, 9.374238, 9.518688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }