{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afcbeccb-7d8c-4e54-bf94-c1c3b4c42117", "symbol": "TSLA", "name": "Tesla Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.927, "architecture_energy": 75.475, "architecture_maturity": 17.055, "architecture_confidence": 82.02, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.35, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 19.33, "deceleration": 34.2, "rotation_down": 74.8, "downward_expansion": 90.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 333.084667, 356.268909, 377.366238, 382.598129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 328.58, "trend_reference": 392.658, "distance_from_trend": -0.16319, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 307.459359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.936427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200749, "excess_performance": -0.388203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16319, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055793, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068694, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379046, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.798645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164946599, "relative_activity": 0.657116, "balance": 0.798645, "dry_up": 0.784651, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115578, "annualized_volatility": 0.454135, "from_high_reference": -0.341299, "from_low_reference": 0.104916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 392.658, "fair_value_reference": 307.459359, "structural_low": 297.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.04305, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.005413, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.608578, "worst_return": -0.185249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.109177, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.052174, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.340563, "worst_return": -0.377821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059959, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.522092, "worst_return": -0.185766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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397.276, 402.679273, 399.125095, 400.619935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 380.84, "volume": 148407675, "typical_volume": 264635591.25, "trend": 406.173, "fair_value": 306.242244, "relative_strength": -15.169194, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.590102, "energy": 26.097086, "activity_lines": [ 391.7, 397.536909, 397.830143, 398.76972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 313.03, "volume": 275649394, "typical_volume": 263318480.55, "trend": 400.767667, "fair_value": 306.540897, "relative_strength": -28.925275, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.783854, "energy": 60.140081, "activity_lines": [ 365.226667, 380.929273, 390.180286, 392.760495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 311.21, "volume": 198835787, "typical_volume": 257844496.5, "trend": 396.539, "fair_value": 306.908526, "relative_strength": -29.52245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.112046, "energy": 73.734617, "activity_lines": [ 343.977333, 365.976364, 382.755667, 386.982581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 328.58, "volume": 164946599, "typical_volume": 251015885.4, "trend": 392.658, "fair_value": 307.459359, "relative_strength": -28.936427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.927154, "energy": 75.474751, "activity_lines": [ 333.084667, 356.268909, 377.366238, 382.598129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }