{ "ticker": { "uuid": "afcf24af-83d7-4bd8-be4f-964bef31586d", "symbol": "IAU", "name": "i-80 Gold Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.094, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.808, "architecture_energy": 29.501, "architecture_maturity": 10.683, "architecture_confidence": 75.939, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.16, "rotation_up": 21.92, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 40.75, "rotation_down": 50.0, "downward_expansion": 77.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.995333, 2.012364, 2.057238, 2.110516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.27, "trend_reference": 2.196333, "distance_from_trend": 0.033541, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.601603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41733, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.537231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113281, "excess_performance": -0.233703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033541, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075372, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.994308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6188700, "relative_activity": 1.137698, "balance": 0.994308, "dry_up": 0.856991, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10166, "annualized_volatility": 0.735392, "from_high_reference": -0.253289, "from_low_reference": 1.873418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.196333, "fair_value_reference": 1.601603, "structural_low": 1.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.015213, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.193069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.133328, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.14408, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.382979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.249169, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.270558, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.267606, "worst_return": -0.416107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.387658, "energy": 43.311442, "activity_lines": [ 2.075333, 2.090545, 2.139476, 2.187333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.24, "volume": 606700, "typical_volume": 7672290.0, "trend": 2.212667, "fair_value": 1.627949, "relative_strength": 14.12378, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.403628, "energy": 16.28505, "activity_lines": [ 2.123333, 2.116, 2.141238, 2.190129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.99, "volume": 4422500, "typical_volume": 7629740.0, "trend": 2.213, "fair_value": 1.62141, "relative_strength": 0.394994, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.957407, "energy": 28.092667, "activity_lines": [ 2.088667, 2.094364, 2.121, 2.175763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.79, "volume": 4508100, "typical_volume": 7387250.0, "trend": 2.202333, "fair_value": 1.615192, "relative_strength": -10.215468, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.917236, "energy": 55.968889, "activity_lines": [ 1.988, 2.037636, 2.084571, 2.148473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.91, "volume": 3595800, "typical_volume": 7171190.0, "trend": 2.196, "fair_value": 1.610192, "relative_strength": -5.225617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.830947, "energy": 53.33852, "activity_lines": [ 1.946, 2.009455, 2.064619, 2.129613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 4354400, "typical_volume": 7073185.0, "trend": 2.19, "fair_value": 1.604679, "relative_strength": -9.994905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.271073, "energy": 67.448848, "activity_lines": [ 1.888667, 1.967455, 2.038429, 2.105355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.27, "volume": 6188700, "typical_volume": 5439670.0, "trend": 2.196333, "fair_value": 1.601603, "relative_strength": 7.537231, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.807745, "energy": 29.500934, "activity_lines": [ 1.995333, 2.012364, 2.057238, 2.110516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }